Exports in the first 6 months are estimated to increase by 13.8%
Mr. Bui Huy Son - Director of Department of Planning and Finance (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - said that export turnover of goods in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at 188.97 billion USD, up 13.8% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 11.3%).
Exports of key group of processing and manufacturing industries are estimated at 159.92 billion USD, accounting for 84.63% of total export turnover and increasing by 13.8% over the same period in 2023 (the same period decreased by 12.6%). Agricultural products continue to be a bright spot in terms of export growth, increasing by 18.8% over the same period in 2023 (down 2.3% over the same period last year), with total export turnover estimated at 18.21 billion USD in the first 6 months of 2024.
Regarding fruits and vegetables, Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association said that according to estimates from General Department of Customs, in the first half of 2024, fruit and vegetable exports reached 3.4 billion USD, up 28% over the same period last year. Of which, durian, dragon fruit, banana and longan are fruits that contribute greatly to the growth of fruit and vegetable exports.
Also according to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 6 months of the year, total import and export turnover of goods is estimated at 369.59 billion USD, up 16.03% over the same period last year. Trade balance of goods continues to have a surplus with a trade surplus estimated at 8.4 billion USD.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh - Consulting Director of Think Future Consultancy - said that thanks to the recovery in exports, Vietnam's economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 increased to 5.66%, compared to the increase of 3.32% in the first quarter of 2023. The number of unemployment benefit applications in the first quarter of 2024 also decreased to 168,000, the lowest level in 10 quarters, showing an improvement in employment sector and business activities of enterprises.
Economic growth will be more positive thanks to exports
Compared to other countries in the world, openness of Vietnamese economy is very large. According to statistics from the World Bank, export value of goods and services of Vietnam is equivalent to 94% of GDP, ranking 14th globally. In Vietnam's total exports, goods exports account for the majority with 82% of GDP. Service exports, mainly tourism and transportation services, account for 12% of GDP. In comparison, two other important components of economic growth are retail sales of goods and services (reflecting the consumer demand of the population) and total social investment (including private investment, public investment, FDI investment), which account for only 61% and 33% of GDP, respectively.
Affirming that exports are direct driving force and have the greatest impact on Vietnam's economic growth, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh analyzed that in 2018 and 2019, Vietnam achieved GDP growth of over 7%, the highest level in 10 years. During the same period, exports increased by 13.2% and 8.4%, respectively. In 2023, when exports decreased by 4.6%, GDP only reached 5%. Fortunately, export sector is showing positive signs.
As the most important driving force of economy, Vietnam's export are heavily dependent on demand of developed economies. Currently, the US, EU, South Korea and Japan account for 53% of Vietnam's merchandise export value. Decline in exports to these markets has caused total exports to decrease and slowed Vietnam's economic growth. In 2023, exports to the US decreased by 11.3%, the EU decreased by 6.7%, South Korea decreased and Japan both decreased by 3.7%. Entering 2024, developed economies are regaining positive growth momentum, with growth forecast to reach 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 (compared to 1.6% in 2023). The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that global merchandise trade will increase by 2.6% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, after falling by 1.2% in 2023.
Improved purchasing power in developed countries has had a clear impact on Vietnam's economy. Merchandise exports in the first five months of 2024 increased by 15.2%, while they decreased by 11.7% in the same period in 2023. Exports to the US, EU, South Korea and Japan all returned to good growth, reaching 22.3%, 16.1%, 10.9% and 3.2%, respectively.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh commented that with the economic forecast of developed markets continuing the positive trend and US consumer goods imports increasing again, we can be confident that Vietnam's exports in the remaining months of 2024 will be better. Export growth in 2025 is also expected to be positive, as developed economies are forecast to continue to grow strongly. With positive signals from the market, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen - General Secretary of Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association also forecasts that fruit and vegetable exports will continue to grow by 15 - 20% this year. If opportunities from protocols are well utilized, fruit and vegetable exports could reach 7 billion USD this year, an increase of 0.5 - 1 billion USD compared to the plan set out by the agricultural sector at the end of last year.
In addition to positive signals, economic experts believe that import-export activities have grown well but still face many challenges. That is, increase in exports is contributed by increase in prices (especially agricultural products and energy) and increase in freight rates (due to the impact of political conflicts) and appreciation of the USD.
On other hand, import-export activities continue to depend on a number of markets, goods and FDI sectors. Some export items of some key export items of Vietnam to major markets such as EU, the US... continue to face pressures on trade defense investigations, technical barriers related to environment, sustainable development and green transformation.
In the second half of 2024, Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that import-export activities will have many advantages when existing FTAs with partners/markets continue to have a positive impact, maintaining Vietnam's advantages in trade and investment activities. However, global economy is entering a new period with many risks and challenges and unpredictability, increasing competition in Vietnam's export markets...
Therefore, to complete the planned tasks in the last 6 months of the year and the whole year of 2024, in field of import and export, Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will strongly implement solutions to unblock production, develop stable supply sources for exports and domestic market; ensure energy security. Focus on market solutions, promote exports and domestic consumption; effectively control imports and quality of goods circulating on the market.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn