Preliminary statistics from General Department of Customs show that as of June 15, Vietnam's coffee exports reached more than 862,400 tonnes, worth 3.04 billion USD, down more than 8% in volume but up 38% in value over the same period last year. This is also a record high compared to the same period in previous years. Of which, Germany is the country that imports the most coffee from Vietnam. This figure is also equivalent to coffee export turnover of the whole year 2021.
In May, average export price of Vietnam's coffee reached 4,275 USD/tonnes, up 14% compared to April and up 66% compared to May 2023. In the first 5 months of the year, average export price of Vietnam's coffee reached 3,475 USD/tonne, up 41% over the same period last year.
In May, Vietnam's coffee exports to most traditional and potential markets decreased, except for China. In the first 5 months, Vietnam reduced coffee exports to Germany, Italy, the US and Russia but increased exports to Spain, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Netherlands and China. Specifically, in the first 5 months of the year, Germany imported 104,375 tonnes of Vietnamese coffee, worth nearly 350 million USD; Italy imported 80,655 tonnes, worth more than 254 million USD; the US imported 50,033 tonnes, worth nearly 170 million USD; Japan imported 56,931 tonnes, worth more than 210 million USD; Spain imported 60,805 tonnes, worth 217 million USD; Russia imported 43,964 tonnes, worth nearly 162 million USD; China imported 22,105 tonnes, worth 84 million USD...
Robusta coffee prices on the London floor for July 2024 delivery increased sharply to 4,205 USD/tonne; the September 2024 delivery period increased to 4,060 USD/tonne.
On New York floor, Arabica coffee prices for September 2024 delivery decreased to 226.25 cents/lb; the November 2024 delivery period decreased to 224.85 cents/lb.
In the domestic market, green coffee prices are still on the rise. On June 20, green coffee was traded around 120,000-121,200 VND/kg.
Currently, in major coffee growing areas of our country, drought and pests have severely affected the productivity of this crop. Coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tonnes. This is the lowest level in 4 years, putting pressure on the supply of Robusta coffee in the world market.
According to experts, Vietnam has the world's largest Robusta coffee output, so the sharp decrease in supply has contributed to recent increase in price of this bean.
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, there is currently very little coffee inventory left in the domestic market. Coffee output in upcoming crop year is forecast to continue to decrease by about 20% due to recent prolonged heat wave leading to severe drought in the Central Highlands.
In the first 8 months of 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tonnes of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop year's output and down 7% compared to the same period last year. According to estimated output, domestic coffee supply (excluding inventory) has only about 300,000 tonnes left for export before entering the new crop year.
According to Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (VICOFA), domestic coffee supply is almost exhausted and inventory of enterprises and farmers is not much. Therefore, export volume from now until the end of September 2024 will gradually decrease even though coffee prices are at a record high.
In the Central Highlands, Vinh Hiep Company Limited and Simexco Daklak Company both said that amount of goods in stock will only be enough to sell until about June, not until the new harvest.
In fact, over the past two decades, low coffee prices have caused many farmers to abandon this crop. Combined with historic drought caused by the El Nino phenomenon, this year's output has dropped, pushing coffee prices to continuously break historical peaks.
Mr. Le Duc Huy - General Director of Simexco Daklak Company - warned that if there is not enough irrigation water, it will be very difficult to ensure the coffee output of this new crop.
According to coffee industry experts, in coming time, price of this type of bean is likely to fluctuate less strongly than in the first months of this year but will still maintain a high level. The reason is that Brazil is in the peak harvest season, while in our country, it will be the harvest season in October.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development predicts that with our country's coffee output, this year, export turnover of this industry will reach over 5 billion USD - the highest level in history.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn