AsemconnectVietnam - In the first 6 months of the year, Vietnam’s total import-export turnover of goods was estimated to reach 369.59 billion USD, up by 16.03% over the same period last year. In the first half of this year, Vietnam's trade surplus was estimated at 8.4 billion USD.

Vietnam's economic growth is forecast to be more positive thanks to export growth.
Vietnam is in the list of top 14 countries with the highest export/GDP ratio in the world. It is forecast that our country's goods exports in the remaining months of 2024 will continue to grow positively.
In comparison to other countries in the world, the openness of Vietnam's economy is very large. According to World Bank statistics, Vietnam's export value of goods and services is equivalent to 94% of GDP, ranking 14th globally. Vietnam's exports of goods accounts for the majority with 82% of GDP. Service exports, mainly tourism and transportation services, account for 12% of GDP. The two other important components of economic growth are retail sales of goods and services (reflecting the consumer demand of the population), and social investment (including private investment, public investment, and FDI investment), accounting for only 61% and 33% of GDP, respectively.
In the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam's goods exports were estimated to increase by 13.8%, trade surplus was estimated to reach 8.4 billion USD.
According to Mr. Bui Huy Son - Director of the Department of Planning and Finance (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam's export turnover of goods in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at 188.97 billion USD, up by 13.8% over the same period of 2023.
Exports of some key product groups of Vietnam in the first 6 months of 2024
In the first 6 months of 2024, the exports of the key group of processing and manufacturing industries were estimated to reach 159.92 billion USD, accounting for 84.63% of total export turnover and increasing 13.8% over the same period of 2023 ( the figure of the same period last year decreased by 12.6%). Agricultural products continued to be a bright spot in export growth, increasing by 18.8% over the same period of 2023 (the figure of the same period last year decreased by 2.3%), the total export turnover of agricultural products was estimated to reach 18.21 billion USD in the first 6 months of 2024.
As for fruits and vegetables, the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association said that according to estimates from the General Department of Customs, in the first half of 2024, fruit and vegetable exports reached 3.4 billion USD, up by 28% over the same period last year. Among them, durian, dragon fruit, banana and longan were the fruits that greatly contributed to fruit and vegetable export growth.
Also according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 6 months of the year, the country’s total import-export turnover of goods was estimated to reach 369.59 billion USD, up by 16.03% over the same period last year. The trade balance of goods continued to be in surplus with an estimated trade surplus of 8.4 billion USD.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh - Consulting Director of Think Future Consultancy - said that due to the recovery of exports, Vietnam's economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 increased to 5.66%, compared to the 3.32% of the first quarter of 2023. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the first quarter of 2024 also decreased to 168,000, the lowest level in 10 quarters, showing improvement in the employment sector and business activities of enterprises.
As the most important driving force of the economy, Vietnam's exports are greatly dependent on the needs of developed economies. Currently, the US, EU, South Korea and Japan account for 53% of Vietnam's export value. The decline in exports to these markets has caused total exports to decrease and slowed down Vietnam's economic growth. In 2023, the country’s exports to the US decreased by 11.3%, to the EU decreased by 6.7%, to South Korea and to Japan both decreased by 3.7%.
Entering 2024, developed economies are regaining positive growth momentum, forecast to grow at 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 (compared to 1.6% in 2024). 2023). The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts global goods trade will increase by 2.6% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, after decreasing by 1.2% in 2023.
Improved purchasing power in developed countries has had a clear impact on Vietnam's economy. The exports of goods in the first 5 months of 2024 increased by 15.2%, while the same period in 2023 the figure decreased by 11.7%. The exports to the US, EU, Korea and Japan all returned to growing well, reaching 22.3%, 16.1%, 10.9% and 3.2% respectively.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh commented that, with economic forecasts of developed markets continuing a positive trend, and US imports of consumer goods increasing again, we can be confident that exports of Vietnam in the remaining months of 2024 will be better. Export growth in 2025 is also expected to be positive, as developed economies are forecast to continue high growth.
With positive signals from the market, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen - General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association also predicted that fruit and vegetable exports this year will continue to grow by 15 - 20%. If we make good use of opportunities from the protocols, fruit and vegetable exports can reach 7 billion USD this year, an increase of 0.5 - 1 billion USD compared to the plan set out at the end of last year of the agricultural sector.
Besides positive signs, economic experts say that import-export activities are growing well but still face many challenges.
That is, increased exports are contributed by increases in prices (especially agricultural products and energy) and increases in transportation costs (due to the impact of political conflicts) and the increases of USD.
On the other hand, the import and export activities continue to depend on a number of markets, products and FDI areas.
Some key export products of Vietnam to major markets such as the EU, US, etc. continue to face pressure from trade defense investigations and related technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, green transformation.
In the second half of 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that import and export activities will have many advantages as existing FTAs with partners/markets continue to have a positive impact, maintaining Vietnam's advantage in business, trade and investment activities.
But the global economy is entering a new period with many risks, challenges and unpredictability, increasing competition in Vietnam's export markets, etc.
Therefore, to complete the planned tasks in the last 6 months of the year and the whole year 2024, in the field of import and export, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will strongly deploy solutions to open up production and develop stable sources of energy supply for export and domestic market; ensure energy security.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn