According to data from General Department of Customs, coal export in April reached 109,219 tonnes, equivalent to 29.4 million USD, a sudden increase of 10,155% in volume and 10,105% in value compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2023, coal export this month increased nearly 16,900% in volume and more than 13,000% in value.
Accumulating in the first 4 months of the year, coal export reached 112,112 tonnes, equivalent to more than 30.27 million USD, up 3,048% in volume and 2,283% in value compared to the same period in 2023. The average export price reached 270 USD /tonne, down 24.3% over the same period last year.
Regarding the market, Japan is still the largest export market for Vietnamese coal in the first 4 months of the year, reaching 53,404 tonnes, equivalent to 12.43 million USD, a sharp increase of 14,612% in volume and 9,578% in value compared with the same period last year. This country accounts for 47.6% in volume and 41.1% in turnover of the total export volume in the first 4 months of 2024. Average export price reaches 232.8 USD/tonne, down 34% compared to the same period in 2023.
The second largest market is the Netherlands, reaching 20,644 tonnes, equivalent to 6.4 million USD, up 2,411% in volume and 2,486% in turnover compared to the same period in 2023. In April alone, Vietnam exported to this market 20,089 tonnes of coal, equivalent to 6.35 million USD, an increase of nearly 11,000% in volume and 7,887% in value compared to April 2023. Average export price reached 314.3 USD/tonne, up nearly 3% over the same period.
South Africa is the third largest export market in 4 months, with 17,020 tonnes, worth 5.4 million USD. Notably, in the same period last year, this country did not carry out any import activities. Export price reached 317.5 USD/tonne, much higher than the average price of the entire market.
In addition, other markets also witnessed strong growth such as Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia. An increase in imports by countries is due to increasing demand for coal for production activities, especially thermal power while hydropower is facing difficulties. A cause is impact of El Nino phenomenon, causing record hot weather.
According to the latest report, Vietnam is one of five economies with the highest coal consumption in Southeast Asia. General Statistics Office said that coal reserves in Vietnam are about 50 billion tonnes. Quang Ninh is the most important coal mine in Vietnam. Coal mines here began to be exploited in 1839. Reserves of up to 8.7 billion tonnes and a location close to the sea, convenient for transporting coal to international market, have helped Quang Ninh become a leading coal mining area in the country.
Ministry of Industry and Trade said that it is expected that ability to mobilize coal will increase in a period from now to 2030, reaching 43-47 million tonnes of commercial coal/year. Then, gradually decrease in a period of 2035-2045.
According to forecasts, coal demand will increase by 2035 from 94-127 million tonnes/year, mainly due to increase in demand for electricity production and economic sectors such as cement, metallurgy and chemicals, then will gradually decrease to 73-76 million tonnes by 2045.
Meanwhile, domestically produced commercial coal only maintains about 45-47 million tonnes/year in a period of 2025-2035 and gradually decreases to 42-44 million tonnes/year in 2045. Therefore, to meet coal demand for production is expected to be imported about 50-83 million tonnes in a period of 2025-2035 and gradually decrease to about 32-35 million tons in 2045.
Coal prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the first 6 months of 2024. An upward price trend, if any, is expected to take place in the second half of 2024 if the world economy has a successful soft landing. And there also needs to be a combination of supply-limiting factors, such as political tensions in major exporting countries (South Africa and Columbia), armed conflicts affecting goods transportation activities.

L. Giang
Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn