AsemconnectVietnam - In the context that the world is facing many difficulties and challenges, Vietnam's socio-economic situation in April continued to change quite positively, contributing to improving the overall results of the first 4 months of the year and creating momentum for new developments in the next months.

Many bright spots
The assessment from the representative of the General Statistics Office said that the macro economy continues to be stable, inflation is controlled, major balances are guaranteed, the consumer price index (CPI) in April 2024 increased by 0.07% compared to the figure of last month. In comparison to December of 2023, Vietnam’s April CPI increased by 1.19% and it increased by 4.4% compared to the same period last year. On average, in the first 4 months of the year, CPI increased by 3.93% over the same period last year; and core inflation increased by 2.81%.
Along with that, the currency market is basically stable; loan interest rates decrease; exchange rates stabilized in accordance with market developments; and the safety of the banking system ensured. The total state budget revenue in April of 2024 was estimated to reach 175.6 trillion VND; and the total state budget revenue in the first four months of 2024 was estimated at 733.4 trillion VND, equal to 43.1% of the yearly estimate and up by 10.1% over the same period last year.
Besides, in the first 4 months of 2024, the exports of goods continued to maintain a bright picture. The total import and export turnover of goods reached 238.88 billion USD, up by 15.2% over the same period last year. Of which, the exports increased by 15%; the imports increased by 15.4% and the trade balance of goods had a surplus of 8.4 billion USD.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) made in Vietnam in the past 4 months was estimated at 6.28 billion USD, up by 7.4% over the same period last year. This was the highest realized FDI capital of the first 4 months of the year in the past 5 years. Also in April of 2024, the whole country had an additional 15,300 newly registered businesses with a registered capital of 175.8 trillion VND, a decrease of 4.1% in the number of businesses and an increase of 13.7% in registered capital compared to the same period of 2023. But in comparison to March of 2024, the number of new businesses in April of 2024 still increased by 8.4%.
The latest report of the World Bank (WB) also noted that Vietnam's economy is showing different signs of recovery and forecasts that economic growth will reach 5.5% in 2024 and gradually increase to 6% in 2025.
According to Mr. Andrea Coppola, chief economist of the World Bank in Vietnam, after experiencing a period of deceleration in 2023, the Vietnamese economy is showing some signs of recovery in early 2024. The exports are recovering. The recovery, consumption and domestic private investment are also on the rise. The exports at constant prices are expected to increase by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting gradually improving global demand.
In addition, the real estate sector is also expected to recover stronger at the end of this year and next year, boosting domestic demand as investors and consumers gradually regain confidence. Inflation is forecast to increase slightly from an average of 3.2% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024. The above forecast reflects the expected increase in prices of goods and services managed by the State, such as education. Education and healthcare, contribute 6.17% and 5.4% respectively to the weight of the CPI basket.
On the other hand, even though conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, oil and raw material prices are expected to decline slightly in 2024. CPI inflation will level off to 3% in 2025 and 2026, based on expectations. Energy and raw material prices will stabilize.
The disbursement of public investment capital increased
A recent forecast by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) suggests that Vietnam's economic growth this year could reach 6%. Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, chief economist of ADB in Vietnam, said that public investment will be the main driving force for growth, but it is necessary to realize the plan for this locomotive to develop its strength.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, a 1% increase in public investment capital disbursement corresponds to a 0.058% increase in GDP. In addition, 1 VND of disbursed public investment capital will stimulate 1.61 VND of investment capital from the non-state sector. However, the implementation rate compared to the plan is always low, fluctuating around 80%.
To promote growth, ADB emphasized that Vietnam needs stronger measures to address domestic structural weaknesses, such as heavy dependence on the export processing industry of FDI enterprises, and the loose links between export processing industries and the rest of the economy. The capital market is young, depends too much on bank credit, and there are complex legal barriers for businesses.
According to Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong, ministries and localities also need to continue to accelerate the effective disbursement of public investment capital. In particular, we also need to complete the detailed allocation of the state budget capital investment plan for 2024 in accordance with regulations, ensuring focus, emphasis, not spreading, and consistent with implementation ability as well as focus on investment in large projects, eliminating scattered investments, minimizing project implementation time, urgently putting projects into use, and improving the efficiency of public investment capital.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn