Expect trade activities to recover positively
At Annual Report of Vietnam Economy and Trade 2023: "Digital transformation with sustainable development" published by the University of Commerce on April 2, experts pointed out positive and negative trends which is favorable to Vietnam's trade this year.
Accordingly, geopolitical risks such as recent conflict in the Middle East and increased Russia-Ukraine tensions could have a negative global impact through commodity and financial markets, trade and confidence.
On positive side, a strong recovery in economic activity and falling inflation in the US could be sustained, even in face of headwinds, if supported by improvements in labor supply. US growth is therefore likely to continue to be stronger than expected as easing inflationary pressures and looser monetary policy.
For Vietnam, representing report compilation group, Associate Professor, PhD. Phan The Cong, Dean of Faculty of Economics - University of Commerce - said that in 2024, Vietnam's trade situation is still considered relatively difficult due to economic recovery of Vietnam's partner countries, happening more slowly than originally expected.
First, Vietnam's economy has high trade openness and influences from the world economy will also affect Vietnam's trade. In particular, geopolitical risks such as recent conflicts in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine continue to cause trade restrictions in Vietnam.
Second, weaker growth in the US and China also partly affects reduction of Vietnam's exports and imports in 2024. Some industries face prolonged difficulties such as Vietnam's textile and garment industry and many large export industries such as electronics, wooden products... when unfavorable factors still exist such as widespread geopolitical crisis, the world economic recession and the main export markets have not recovered.
Vietnam has many opportunities and advantages in trade activities when participating in many Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), especially new generation FTAs, our country's import and export turnover has and will continue to increase. There are many opportunities and new competitive pressures, etc. If Vietnamese businesses make good use of FTAs, there will be many export opportunities. Positive signals from foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam are expected to play an important role in the recovery in 2024, especially for Vietnam's trade activities.
Solutions and directions of the Government and the Prime Minister to implement Resolution No.01/NQ-CP and Resolution No.02/NQ-CP of the Government have been seriously and actively implemented right from the beginning days of 2024. Ministry of Industry and Trade has issued an Action Program to implement Resolution No.01/NQ-CP of the Government to unify implementation organization throughout the industry. Therefore, expectations for domestic production as well as trade activities are more positive in the coming time.
3 scenarios for Vietnamese trade
The report also presents three scenarios for Vietnam's trade in 2024. Accordingly, base scenario is the most likely scenario. With the base scenario, target forecasts will be at a level consistent with economic recovery trend and established external assumptions. Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 5.78% in 2024 and GDP per capita in USD will reach about 4,607 USD/person/year. With this scenario, average CPI in 2024 over the same period is about 3.71%. Total import-export turnover of goods is estimated to reach 760.15 billion USD, an increase of 11.62% compared to 2023, of which exports increase by 10.84%; Imports increased by 12.46%.
High growth scenario, this is a scenario that can also happen if upcoming geopolitical developments in the world are more positive. Domestic economic developments have many advantages. Economies of Vietnam's major trading partners have recovered positively, promoting domestic production.
In this scenario, economic growth will reach 6.21% in 2024 and GDP per capita in USD will reach about 4,659 USD/person/year. Average CPI index in 2024 compared to the same period is about 4.23%. Total import-export turnover of goods is estimated at 790.56 billion USD, an increase of 16.08% compared to 2023, of which exports increase by 15.28%; Imports increased by 16.95%.
With negative scenario, when complex developments in geopolitics, the world economy as well as effects of climate change will continue to cause the world economy to fall into difficulties. Domestic economy is affected by many negative impacts, combined with internal problems of the economy, which may cause Vietnam's economic growth to continue to be low in 2024.
Accordingly, with this scenario, growth in 2024 is forecast to increase by 5.21% and average GDP per capita in USD will reach about 4,556 USD/person/year. Average CPI index in 2024 compared to the same period is about 3.34%. Total import-export turnover of goods is estimated to reach 737.35 billion USD, an increase of 8.27% compared to 2023. Out of which exports increase by 7.52%; Imports increased by 9.08%.
Seven groups of policy recommendations are given
To achieve goal of developing sustainable import and export with a balanced and harmonious structure, promoting competitive advantages, developing Vietnamese goods brands as the Vietnam Goods Import and Export Strategy to 2030 has stated construction, the Government needs to consider implementing import-export development policies.
Accordingly, group of proposed export market development policies includes: Policies to maintain key and traditional export markets; policies to develop new markets and niche markets; export market diversification policy; take advantage and maximize the benefits that signed FTAs bring; Actively integrate deeply and effectively internationally, taking advantage of the advantages that free trade agreements bring to promote import-export development; Attract foreign direct investment to boost exports.
Group of policies for sustainable development of export goods sources includes: Policies to develop green, clean, sustainable and circular production; Policy on developing commodity sources, innovating commodity structure, diversifying goods. Promote in-depth restructuring of export goods, targeting core industrialization and modernization; Policies to support production in new fields and key technologies to promote domestic production, create export product groups that are highly competitive, have high scientific and technological content, and enhance high innovation content in export products; Policies to develop brands of Vietnamese export goods; Policy to develop export products associated with green trade and fair trade; Policies to develop sources of import and export goods associated with environmental protection, biodiversity and adaptation to climate change.
In addition, research team also proposed a group of trade and export promotion policies; supply chain development policy group; Policy group for developing commercial infrastructure and logistics services to serve foreign trade activities; Policy group to support import-export businesses; Import management policy.
Particularly for a group of policies to develop commercial infrastructure and logistics services to serve foreign trade activities, report of University of Commerce recommends that the Government needs to increase public investment in projects. Developing infrastructure to serve import and export activities.
These include: Building, expanding and upgrading roads, railways, seaports and airports to increase ability to transport goods and services; Invest in warehouse infrastructure, distribution centers, and logistics management systems to improve the transportation and storage of goods, reducing time and costs; Improve infrastructure and services at seaports and border gates to enhance cargo handling capacity and support import and export activities; Improve customs and clearance processes, create special logistics zones to develop logistics support services.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn