AsemconnectVietnam - In February of 2024, Vietnam’s rice exports only grew slightly, but totally in the first 2 months of 2024, Vietnam's rice exports still increased by 20.4% in volume, 55.7% in turnover and 29.4% in price compared to the same period of 2023.

Vietnam's rice exports in the first 2 months of 2024
According to the preliminary statistics figures of the General Department of Customs, in February of 2024, Vietnam's rice exports increased by 9.9% in volume and 3.1% in turnover compared to January of 2024, but the price decreased by 6.2%, reaching 562,943 tonnes, equivalent to 373.37 million USD, the average price was 663.3 USD/tonne. Overall, for the two months of 2024, rice exports increased by 20.4% in volume, 55.7% in turnover and 29.4% in price compared to the first two months of 2023, reaching nearly 1.08 million tonnes, equivalent to over 735.58 million USD, the average price was 684.2 USD/tonne.
Vietnam's main rice export markets in the first 2 months of 2024
Vietnam's rice exports the most to the Philippine market in the first 2 months of 2024, accounting for 46.5% of the total volume and 45.8% of the country's total rice export turnover, reaching 500,195 tonnes, equivalent to 337 05 million USD, the price was at 673.8 USD/tonne, up by 24.4% in volume, up by 64.7% in turnover and up by 32.3% in price compared to 2 months of 2023. In February of 2024 alone, the exports of rice to the Philippines reached 219,251 tonnes, equivalent to 142.76 million USD, the price was at 651 USD/tonne, down by 22% in volume, down by 26.5% in turnover and down by 5.8% in price compared to January of 2024.
Rice exports to Indonesia ranked second, increasing sharply by 52.4% in volume, 110.5% in turnover and 38% in price compared to the first 2 months of 2023, reaching 219,165 tonnes, equivalent to 141.69 million.USD, priced at 646.5 USD/tonne, accounting for 20.4% of the total volume and 19.3% of the country's total rice export turnover.
Meanwhile, rice exports to the Malaysian market increased by 112.3% in volume, 145.3% in turnover and 15.5% in price compared to the first 2 months of 2023, reaching 38,257 tonnes, equivalent to 24.7 million USD, the average price was 645.6 USD/tonne, accounting for over 3% of total volume and total turnover.
Rice price forecast in 2024
According to the information from tinnhanhchungkhoan, it is forecast that rice prices will increase in 2024, due to tight supply, while the import demand of many countries tends to increase. Specifically, the global rice supply is no longer abundant when India - accounting for 40% of global production - reduced output by 4 million tonnes compared to the previous crop year, to only 132 million tonnes; Other markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, etc. are also forecast to reduce output due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon and climate change.
Global ending inventory for the 2023 - 2024 crop year is estimated at 167.2 million tonnes, down 8.6 million tons compared to the previous crop year and is the lowest inventory level in the past 6 crop years.
Vietnam's rice export forecast in 2024
In 2024, according to many experts' forecasts, the world situation will still have many difficulties, but Vietnam's rice exports have shown optimistic signs right from the first months of the year.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the global rice supply in 2024 is forecast to decrease, many countries restrict exports, meanwhile, the import demand of many countries tends to increase, creating space for Vietnamese rice to increase exports and get better selling prices. It is estimated that 2024 will be the consecutive year rice exports exceed 8 million tonnes, bringing in about 5 billion USD. Export orders from key markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and China are pouring into Vietnam. These are the three markets that import the most rice from our country.
Mr. Phung Van Thanh, Vietnam's trade counselor in the Philippines, said that in 2023, Vietnam's rice export turnover to the Philippines reached 3.1 million tonnes, worth of 1.75 billion USD. In 2024, Vietnamese rice is forecast to still hold the number 1 position in the Philippines and there are many opportunities for businesses to continue to exploit and expand the market and increase export turnover.
Indonesia, Vietnam's second largest rice importer, also increased imports to ensure food security. As of February of 2024, Indonesia has experienced eight consecutive months of rice deficit due to domestic production falling short of demand.
According to information from Mr. Pham The Cuong, Vietnamese commercial counselor in Indonesia, the Indonesian Government will soon open bids to buy more rice, in addition to the bid opening to purchase 500,000 tonnes of rice on January 17, 2024 (of which, Vietnamese rice exporters won the bid to supply more than 300,000 tonnes).
For the Chinese market, the demand for rice each year is up to 150 million tonnes. Mr. Nong Duc Lai, counselor of the Vietnam trade mission in China, predicted that this year, it is likely that China will increase rice imports to harmonize import and production to ensure food security. Therefore, rice exports to the billion-people market can far exceed the figure of more than 900,000 tonnes in 2023, and export prices also have the opportunity to increase further.
Exports in 2023 exceeding 8 million tonnes were the highest result in the history of Vietnam's rice industry since participating in export (1989), affirming that Vietnam continues to be one of the three leading countries in exporting rice in the world, accounting for about 15% of total global rice exports, next to India and Thailand.
In 2024, with the ability to produce 43 million tonnes of rice, the rice industry is guaranteed to meet domestic consumption and export needs of over 8 million tonnes. However, according to Mr. Tran Quoc Toan, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade), the rice export market is still not diverse, still depending on a number of traditional markets such as the Philippines and China,
Measures to achieve efficiency in rice export in 2024
To effectively export rice in 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the Ministry will closely monitor the situation of the world rice trade market, the moves of major producing and exporting countries, and promptly inform ministries and agencies, Vietnam Food Association, rice export traders to proactively regulate rice production and export business activities.
In the latest direction on promoting sustainable, transparent and effective rice production, business and export in the new situation, the Prime Minister assigned the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to research and promote the implementation of agricultural commodity trading floors, including rice trading floors to ensure openness and transparency in rice trading. Along with that, to build a pilot model to bring traders into the value chain of the rice industry to both promote its role as a bridge between people and businesses, and limit possible risks for businesses that join the value chain.
In a market context with intertwined opportunities and challenges, to continue implementing the tasks assigned by the Government and the Prime Minister, ensuring operating goals, making good use of opportunities to continue well to traditional markets and access and increase market share in countries with great potential, contributing to promoting rice exports in the coming time, according to Mr. Tran Quoc Toan - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will urgently review and complete the Decree amending and supplementing Decree No. 107/2018/ND-CP of the Government on rice export business to complete the legal corridor for the rice export mechanism, creating a transparent, fair and favorable business environment for rice export traders.
In addition, the ministry needs to coordinate with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to proactively negotiate to diversify export markets, take advantage of opportunities to dominate new and potential markets to strengthen competitiveness for Vietnam's rice industry.
Besides, the ministry also needs to continue to closely monitor the situation of the world rice trade market, the moves of major producing and exporting countries, and promptly inform ministries, branches, the Vietnam Food Association, and rice export traders to proactively regulate rice production and export business activities.
We also need to continue to flexibly organize and deploy trade promotion activities, combining traditional and online forms to strengthen rice trade cooperation with traditional markets such as Indonesia, African countries, China, exploit niche markets with fragrant rice and high quality rice that we have penetrated in recent years, including the EU, South Korea, the United States, North America; as well as organize well the task of implementation of the Strategy for developing Vietnam's rice export market until 2030.
Regarding capacity building and supply chain development, Mr. Tran Quoc Toan said that the Ministry of Industry and Trade will guide and support rice export traders to improve production capacity, business and market information, negotiate, sign, implement export contracts, and handle international trade disputes.
The ministry will continue to coordinate with relevant ministries, branches and agencies to capture information; support localities and traders to synchronously improve the rice industry supply chain towards sustainability; apply technology to ensure output, improve quality and value of rice products.
Moreover, the ministry will also continue to coordinate with the Vietnam Food Association to increase propaganda to raise traders' awareness of the regulations in new generation free trade agreements and bilateral agreements to take the full advantage of tax quotas for Vietnam.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn