According to Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, in 2023, seafood exports seem to return to usual trajectory of gradually increasing from the second quarter, peaking in the third quarter, a period when orders increase to serve year-end demand and the fourth quarter is usually lower than the third quarter.
This shows that market and business situation of seafood business community is gradually returning to normal.
It is forecast that last year's low price trend will end this year. Prices of aquatic species will increase again from the second quarter and may increase more strongly in the second half of 2024.
However, what businesses are most concerned about is that the conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt global trade, including seafood. Instability in the Red Sea is seriously affecting global supply chain. Shipping lines rerouted their routes, so shipping journeys between Asia, Europe and the East Coast of North America became longer. Freight rates increased sharply and cargo insurance increased.
Recently, there was news that the shipping route through Panama Canal was also affected because of low water levels, causing a decrease in container traffic through there.
Thus, the new and big challenge of global seafood trade this year is that shipping through both the Suez and Panama canals is difficult. The consequences could be backlogs of goods, lack of container ships and empty containers. This will affect supply chain and risk making global inflation more serious.
In recent times, efforts and flexibility of businesses have brought seafood industry through the Covid period with similar logistical challenges that disrupted supply chain.
There may be "turnarounds" in export markets and export products and turning challenges into opportunities. For example, China will likely attract more businesses this year, because of its close geographical location, low transportation costs and easier control.
More importantly, China will certainly experience a reduction in supply from Ecuador due to both unstable security issues in this South American country and also due to difficulties in shipping and increased costs... Therefore, China will have to offset supply from Vietnam and other Asian countries.
Or another example of export product trends. With characteristics of easy preservation, long shelf life and reasonable prices, canned, bagged seafood and dry goods will be more in demand this year in the context of war, conflict and inflation.
In 2024, there will still be difficulties and challenges from the previous year and a new challenge is the conflict in the Middle East but with efforts, acumen and adaptability of seafood businesses, along with signs of recovery. To restore the market, seafood exports are forecast to reach 9.5 billion USD, up 6% compared to 2023.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn