AsemconnectVietnam - This year is determined to be the year of acceleration and breakthrough towards the target of the socio-economic development plan for the period 2021-2025.

Although the comments are in an optimistic direction, achieving the economic growth target still has many challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively exploit internal resources and turn that into a real driving force for growth.
In 2024, the world economy is forecast to recover its growth and have "soft landings", but there are still many potential risks and challenges.
“In that context, Vietnam's highly open economy will certainly be directly affected. However, with strong resilience and a growth rate of 5.05% in 2023, Vietnam continues to become a bright spot of growth in the region and the world. This is considered a good sign compared to economies with large export-oriented openness such as Thailand and Malaysia", said Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, Country Director of the Asian Development Bank in Vietnam.
While the world and major economies' economic growth forecasts were cautious and lower than 2023, Vietnam continues to set a 2024 growth target of 6-6.5%. The economy in 2024 is expected to prosper thanks to the foundation from 2023 as well as policies and solutions from the Government, ministries and branches for financial, banking, bond and real estate markets.
Ms. Dang Nguyet Minh, Director of Research Division of Dragon Capital Investment Fund, assessed that the world has gone through a cycle of inventory reduction. Dragon Capital's tracking showed that the European and American manufacturer inventory index; the global retailer inventory index has returned to sustainable levels. So it can be expected that the bottom of Vietnam's production industry has passed and 2024 will be the year of economic recovery.
“The cash flow trend from both FDI and indirect investment in the Vietnamese stock market in 2024 will be stronger and clearer. For the export sector, the export bottom has passed, we are starting a new recovery cycle. Public investment is the motivation and confidence for businesses to invest again. Therefore, the Government has been very decisive in promoting public investment. As for consumption, we may have to wait for a delay in interest rates, so there will be a more positive recovery in the second half of 2024," added Ms. Dang Nguyet Minh.
According to Ms. Dorsati Madani, senior economist of the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, the private investment is at a very low level in Vietnam. Along with that is the trend of slowing down in consumer spending. These are factors that take time to recover. Besides, the real estate market also faces many difficulties. Therefore, many policies are needed to support these areas.
Ms. Dorsati Madani said that, Vietnam needs to change to restore the private economy, along with gradually recovering domestic consumer spending. In addition, besides international trade, domestic trade must also be promoted. In the coming time, commodity prices may not increase, and some commodity prices will even decrease and inflation in Vietnam and around the world will decrease. These are factors that will change the economic prospects of Vietnam and the world.
Take advantage of opportunities to create new breakthroughs
According to Mr. Andrea Coppola, chief economist of World Bank in Vietnam, as global economic growth is expected to continue to slow down in 2024, the GDP growth target of 6-6.5% next year will be a very difficult challenge. “Vietnam's export demand may gradually improve, while domestic consumption and investment accelerate further. Vietnam needs to continue to extend policies to support the economy, through fiscal policy, by accelerating the pace of infrastructure investment and public investment projects, to promote economic growth in the short and long term," Mr. Coppola commented.
Assessing the opportunities for economic growth in 2024, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, Hanoi's National Assembly delegation, said that Vietnam has many new opportunities, but in the context of only relying on the world economy or export resources, it is difficult to overcome and go backwards to the general trend. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively exploit internal resources, and turn that into a real driving force for growth to rise up. At the same time, it is necessary to take specific actions to "capture" the huge opportunities that are opening up, for example in green transformation, digital transformation, etc. These factors will create a fundamental change in the structure of the economy.
Among the important growth drivers, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that it is impossible not to mention that recently we are clearly seeing the determination of the Party, the National Assembly, and the Government to focus efforts to support businesses, with the determination to create new developments in 2024.
“2024 is probably a year of rare opportunities that will not be repeated if investors do not take advantage of them. Otherwise, we may lose opportunities and investors will not be able to convert into high-value manufacturing industries and supply chains. I think this requires action from the Government, businesses and investors", Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong affirmed.
Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong believes that another important factor that needs attention is promoting domestic consumption in the country. Vietnam has a domestic consumer market of 100 million people, which is not small. This creates opportunities for resources, especially increasing opportunities for integration.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn