AsemconnectVietnam - According to the Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) said that this year, it is necessary to continue to focus on promoting economic growth recovery, on the basis of firmly improving the microeconomic foundation and innovation of economic institutional system towards being more friendly to innovation and the environment, associated with effectively handling risks in a volatile international economic environment.

Within the framework of the Macroeconomic Reform and Green Growth Program sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development, January 15, 2024 in Hanoi, CIEM coordinated with the International Cooperation Organization Germany (GIZ) organized the Workshop "Vietnam's economy in 2023 and prospects for 2024: Reforms to accelerate growth recovery". Looking back at 2023, CIEM's overview report stated that Vietnam's economy has clearly shown a clear growth recovery momentum in the second half of 2023.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 increased by 5.05%, lower than the set target (6.5%) but has improved between quarters. The economic growth recovery was not accompanied by increased inflationary pressure.
The business sector also witnessed positive changes in the second half of 2023. The number of newly registered businesses in 2023 reached a record level, with nearly 160,000 businesses, 1.2 times higher than the average level of the 2017 -2022 period and increased by 4.6% compared to the estimate for the whole year. The number of businesses entering and re-entering the market increases by 4.5% over the same period of 2022, 1.3 times higher than the number of businesses withdrawing from the market in 2023.
Besides, the economy had many bright spots, the average consumer price index (CPI) in 2023 increased by 3.25% compared to 2022, much lower than the target set for the whole year 2023 (4.5%).
Entering 2024, on the basis of analysis and evaluation of socio-economic development data nationwide in 2023, the report named"Vietnam's economy in 2023 and prospects for 2024: Reforms to accelerate economic recovery" the head of CIEM has proposed two scenarios forecasting Vietnam's economic prospects in 2024. Specifically, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of CIEM's General Research Department, said that in scenario 1, the world economy continues to recovery slowly, inflation remains high, countries have not yet lowered interest rates on a large scale, and commodity supply chains continue to face serious disruptions on some transport routes, the world GDP increases by 2.9% in 2024; the US prices increased by 2.4%; the prices of exported agricultural products decreased by 2.2%; the world crude oil prices decrease by 0.7%.
On the Vietnamese side, the VND/USD exchange rate of commercial banks increases by 1.5%; the total means of payment increase by about 9%; credit increases by 15%; the import prices of goods decrease by 2%. The population increases by 0.84% and the number of employed workers increases by 5% compared to 2023. With this scenario, it is forecast that the economic growth in 2024 may reach 6.13%; the exports of goods for the whole year increase by 4.02%; the trade surplus may reach 5.64 billion USD; and the average inflation is at 3.94%.
“Scenario 2 maintains most of the same assumptions as in scenario 1. Some adjustments are: the world GDP growth increases by 3.2%; total means of payment increase by 10%; credit increases by 16%; the imported goods prices decreased by 5%; VND/USD exchange rate of commercial banks increases by 2%. Besides, the country needs to promote business environment reform, facilitate new economic models (digital economy, circular economy, creative economy, etc.); thereby improving investor confidence, realized capital of the FDI sector (including both foreign and Vietnamese sides) increasesby 5%. Strong institutional reforms help to increase growth quality, including labor productivity. With this calculation, the forecast is that economic growth in 2024 can reach 6.48%; the exports for the whole year increase by 5.19%; the trade surplus at 6.26 billion USD; and the average annual inflation is at 3.72%", Head of CIEM's General Research Department added.
To achieve the highest growth rate, CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh emphasized that in 2024, policy priorities need to continue to focus on promoting economic growth recovery, on the basis of solidly improving the economy, microeconomic foundation and reform of the economic institutional system in a direction to more friendly innovation and the environment, associated with effective handling of risks in the volatile international economic environment.
In addition, experts also believe that Vietnam needs to continue to handle a number of challenges in the process of implementing RCEP in the coming time, including challenges in improving preferential utilization rates and the risk of increasing trade deficit with some partners in RCEP, and ensuring the quality of FDI projects from the RCEP region, especially the need to handle the biggest challenge, which is to increase awareness and thorough understanding of FDI projects. agencies and businesses on appropriate thinking to effectively access and exploit opportunities from RCEP.
CK
Source: VITIC/haiquanonline.com.vn