According to a report from Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2023, export turnover of goods is estimated to reach 355.5 billion USD, down 4.4% comparing to the previous year. In 2023, there were 35 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 93.6% of total export turnover (out of which, 7 export items with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 66%).
A stable macroeconomy and relatively low inflation will create a position for Vietnamese export enterprises in 2024.
Basing on the country's GDP growth objectives of 6 - 6.5% in 2024, Ministry of Industry and Trade aims to increase export turnover by about 6%, equivalent to 377 billion USD, maintaining trade surplus of about 15 billion USD.
Export orders are gradually recovering since the fourth quarter of 2023, which is one of factors for export businesses to believe that the 2024 market picture will improve better than in 2023.
Mr. Tran Nhu Tung - Chairman of Board of Directors of Thanh Cong Textile and Garment Investment Trading Joint Stock Company - said that the company currently has enough orders for the first quarter of 2024, but still less than in previous years. However, the situation may improve in the second quarter of 2024, early in April and later in June, when the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and supports business recovery. If everything happens as predicted, 2024 is still a year of worth hoping for for textile and garment businesses.
EU market accounts for 75% of LNK Company's exports. According to Ms. Vu Thi Nhung - Director of LNK Company, by mid-December, the company had received enough orders until the first quarter of 2024. However, speed of receiving orders is slower than the same period in previous years. However, partners now intends to transfer orders from other suppliers to Vietnam. If this wave of transformation can be implemented in 2024, this will be a great growth driver for businesses.
And opposite comments
VinaCapital has just released an analysis report saying that Vietnam's export activities will recover from a decrease of 4% in 2023 to an increase of 7% in 2024. VinaCapital said that after a challenging year 2023, all signs suggest that 2024 will be a stronger year for the Vietnamese economy, driven by recovery of manufacturing sector and improving consumer sentiment.
Reducing interest rates in 2023 will also support real estate market's recovery, just as it supported the stock market last year.
The biggest risk in VinaCapital's quite positive forecast is prospect of the US economy falling into crisis - which will cause demand for "Made in Vietnam" products to decline. Value of USD will increase in this situation due to tendency to hold USD and this will limit Vietnam's ability to cut interest rates to support the economy.
However, Vietnam can completely respond to the above situation with fiscal stimulus solutions - including increasing public investment. In early 2023, the Government set a direction to increase public investment by 50% to 30 billion USD, equivalent to 7% of GDP in 2023 (from 4% of GDP in 2022). Most likely, this is a step to support the economy in context that demand for "Made in Vietnam" products has been affected by declining consumer demand globally.
However, there are also opinions that there are still too many uncertain factors, so it is difficult for goods exports to create a breakthrough in 2024. According to Mr. Tran Le Minh - General Director and Senior Director of VIS Rating Business Development, Vietnam's export of goods still depends heavily on the US and EU markets. However, economics of these two large markets are not forecast to be really positive.
“There is still a lack of clear signs of recovery for demand in Vietnam's major export markets in the first 6 months of the year. Besides, there are still too many uncertain factors, so it is difficult for commodity exports to create a breakthrough in 2024", Mr. Tran Le Minh said.
Sharing the same opinion on this issue, Mr. Tran Ngoc Bau - Founder and CEO of WiGroup - assess that consumption in some key markets is still weak, overall in 2024 may be lower than last year 2023. Therefore, Vietnam's goods exports are unlikely to recover well in 2024.
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in general, external pressure on Vietnam's industrial production and import-export activities in 2024 comes from all three channels.
First, international trade channel, where many economies are major partners of Vietnam, grows slowly, making it difficult for aggregate demand to recover strongly, thereby affecting export results.
Second, international investment channels, when world interest rates are generally still anchored at high levels, make it difficult to attract capital for investment in general and directly create significant pressure to keep invested capital in Vietnam as well as attracting new investment capital.
Third, monetary financial channel with pressure of devaluation of domestic currency compared to the USD, although somewhat favorable for exports, will cause increasing cost of importing raw materials to serve production and increase payment of foreign debts.
To achieve a target of total export turnover in 2024 increasing by about 6% compared to 2023, Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will focus on effectively exploiting free trade agreements (FTAs) that have taken effect, signing, concluding and implementing new agreements to expand and diversify markets, import and export products and supply chains.
In addition, increase exploitation of neighboring markets with potential, shifting strongly to official exports associating with brand building and promoting sustainable exports. At the same time, continue to innovate and improve effectiveness of trade promotion.
In 2024, the world context is forecast to continue to have major and unpredictable changes with many interwoven opportunities and challenges. As a highly open economy, Vietnam cannot avoid negative effects of external fluctuations in context of huge risks and challenges for the world economic outlook in 2024.
Ministry of Industry and Trade also recommends that businesses should not be negligent or subjective, but must closely monitor fluctuations in production, supply and demand and commodity prices in the world and domestically to promptly have solutions, respond promptly and effectively to achieve the goals set in 2024 as well as in a period of 2021 - 2025.

Source: Vitic/ vinanet.vn