AsemconnectVietnam - According to Director General of the General Statistics Office Nguyen Thi Huong public investment, especially investment in infrastructure, will be one of the important growth drivers and the service sector is expected to continue expanding thanks to the strong recovery of the tourism industry, thereby having a spillover impact on other economic sectors, stimulating growth in 2024.

According to Ms Hương, in 2023, although Vietnam's economy continued to face many difficulties and challenges, Vietnam's socio-economic situation in 2023 maintained a positive trend, the macroeconomy was stable, inflation was under control, the major balances are guaranteed, many important results in all fields achieved the set goals and continued to be an economic bright spot in the region and the world.
In the context of the world economy, there were still many uncertainties and the difficulties were more than advantages, but Vietnam's economy in 2023 maintained a positive growth momentum, the next quarter is higher than the previous quarter (1st quarter increased by 3.41%; 2nd quarter increased by 4.25%; 3rd quarter increased by 5.47%; 4th quarter increased by 6.72%). For the whole year 2023, GDP increased by 5.05% compared to the previous year.
In addition to the results achieved, for the first time in the period 2012 - 2023, the growth of Vietnam's import-export turnover in 2023 declined, thereby clearly demonstrating the general difficulties of the world economy due to aggregate demand decline. The trade surplus of goods of 28 billion USD was actually due to lower import growth than export growth (down by 8.9% compared to a decrease of 4.4%), showing that domestic manufacturing enterprises serve the domestic market. The exports were also negatively affected due to a shortage of orders, so input materials were not imported to serve production.
However, it must be affirmed that the positive signs of export and import of goods in the last months of the year were the result of the drastic direction of the Government, the Prime Minister and ministries and branches with effective measures.
The positive and synchronous solutions were deployed to remove difficulties to support domestic production, promote trade, and expand export markets. The country also strengthened economic diplomacy efforts with major partners around the world in 2023.
Agricultural products continued to make impressive contributions and were a bright spot in the country's export activities, especially agricultural product groups such as rice, vegetables, coffee, cashew nuts...
Inflation has tended to cool down in major economies such as the US, China and Europe, etc. Inventories in other countries are gradually decreasing. Along with that, demand for goods also often increases during the year-end holidays, contributing to the recovery of exports.
According to Ms. Hương, in 2024, it is forecast that potential risks from the world economic environment will still exist and continue to have a negative impact on Vietnam's economic growth recovery prospects. The recovery ability of the global economy is unclear. In the country, although opportunities, advantages, difficulties, and challenges are intertwined, traditional driving forces are still weak and new driving forces are not clear, so in 2024, Vietnam's economic forecast is still facing many difficulties. challenge.
The impact of the decline in the world economy that has accumulated since the pandemic until now will likely continue to impact the Vietnamese economy at least in the first half of 2024, before receiving signs of more positive and positive. However, Vietnam's economy will still have a chance to recover more positively when support policies issued in 2023 have a clearer impact; The driving forces of investment (including private investment, FDI, public investment, state-owned enterprises), consumption, tourism and export continue to be strongly promoted; Backlog problems and long-term inadequacies are focused on being resolved and changing more positively in 2024, especially problems of businesses, investment projects, real estate markets, corporate bonds, etc.
According to Ms. Huong, the economic growth drivers in 2024 include: the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector continues to grow positively; The effectiveness of the agricultural development strategy and crop restructuring while ensuring food supply and security while developing sustainable agriculture, exploitation and aquaculture will continue to be promoted in the coming year. Agricultural, forestry and fishery production is forecast to continue to be stable, and rising food product prices will play a positive role in supporting economic growth.
Public investment, especially investment in infrastructure, will be one of the important growth drivers. Attracting FDI is forecast to continue to be a bright spot, Vietnam is still one of the priority choices for FDI capital flows. The service sector is expected to continue to expand thanks to the strong recovery of the tourism industry, thereby having a spillover effect on other economic sectors, stimulating growth.
Some commercial sectors can maintain growth momentum by trade policies and promote domestic consumption such as: air transport, wholesale and retail, accommodation and food services, financial services. , tourism services... Non-market service industries are forecast to remain stable. Inflation is strictly controlled at a reasonable level, which will positively support domestic consumption.
The recovery of industry, employment and wages will help stimulate domestic consumption. In addition, 11,000 billion VND will be used to increase pensions and 18,000 billion VND will be used to increase benefits for people with meritorious services to the revolution. The Government's implementation of salary reform from July 1, 2024 will have a major impact on those receiving salaries and subsidies from the State budget.
Ms. Huong said that 2024 is the breakthrough year of the 5-year economic journey from 2021 to 2025, so the Government, ministries, branches and localities will also devote all their efforts to this journey to the finish line. These may be subjective advantages, but they are also great pressure on the country's economic activities. In an uncertain world context, Vietnam continues to maintain macroeconomic stability, which is an important foundation for achieving expected growth goals.
To achieve the quarterly economic growth target in 2024, the General Statistics Office believes that the economic - political - social situation must be stabilized, creating confidence for investors; and inflation must be controlled. Along with that, Vietnam needs to promote the effectiveness of fiscal policies; monetary policy to support businesses in easily accessing credit capital; as well as issue policies to promote public investment, remove difficulties and obstacles for land, real estate, construction, tourism and capital markets.
At the same time, ministries, branches and localities need to accelerate public investment progress, prioritizing projects that are about to be completed; Soon put into use large-scale and potential projects to maintain and expand production and business capacity. Along with tax reduction and tax deferral, it is necessary to reduce fees and support businesses in finding new markets; make good use of signed FTAs; promote negotiations and sign more new agreements; strengthen administrative procedure reform, and create an open business environment for businesses.
In addition, the country also needs to effectively implement domestic market trade promotion programs, promote goods distribution via digital platforms and e-commerce to expand domestic consumption; as well as encourage Vietnamese people to prioritize using Vietnamese products; and focus on investing in modernizing the distribution system in rural and mountainous areas to promote bringing Vietnamese goods to rural areas, deploy activities to stimulate domestic consumption in localities with specific products and advantages.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn/haiquanonline.com.vn