AsemconnectVietnam - With adjustments and adaptation to the market context, it is predicted that seafood businesses will help the industry's exports recover to the level of 9.5 billion USD - 10 billion USD in 2024.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in 2024, many difficulties will continue to dominate the situation of seafood production and export. In addition, there will be other challenges that will slow down the ability to recover exports next year. From the above reality, VASEP has made 10 comments on market trends and seafood export forecasts in 2024.
Inflation in major countries has been contained, the world economy has bottomed out, but recovery is slow, affecting demand for seafood consumption. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, fighting in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues around the world certainly disrupt global trade, including seafood. As a result, transportation costs increase and input product prices for aquaculture and seafood processing increase. It could also cause a new inflationary storm that will affect seafood consumption demand in 2024.
Besides, the cycle of price reduction of many aquatic species may continue until the end of the first half of 2024.
For the US market, the demand is slow to recover and there is an increasing trend of importing cheap shrimp from Ecuador. Along with that, exporting shrimp to the US will be more difficult if anti-subsidy tax (CVD) is imposed.
For the Chinese market, the demand is recovering stronger, but the low prices may make it difficult to compete, and feed costs continue to be a big challenge for both the shrimp and pangasius farming industries.
Regarding the industry, according to the analysis of Ms. Le Hang, Communications Director of VASEP, shrimp products continue to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, the oversupply situation may continue until the first half of the year 2024 (the world shrimp production in 2024 will increase by 4.8% to 5.9 million tonnes). Ecuador and India are increasing their market share in the US, China, EU and Japan, while increasing processed shrimp exports although the proportion is still modest.
For the main export item of pangasius, currently, the inventory in the US, China, and EU markets is no longer a problem. The export prices will increase again in those markets. In addition to frozen fillets, the trend of importing value-added pangasius and by-products (fish maw, pangasius patties) continues to increase.
Regarding seafood, the IUU yellow card continues to be a challenge. If this problem is not resolved in 2024, it will cause exports to the EU to stagnate because the procedures for confirming and certifying exploited seafood are still inadequate due to resource factors, human resources and infrastructure are not adequate. Industries such as tuna, squid, octopus and marine fish are most affected. Regarding consumption, market demand focuses on cheaper product segments such as canned fish, raw fish for processing canned fish, dried fish, and dried shrimp.
There will be an increased trend of outsourcing after China's move to ban the import of Japanese seafood, causing Japanese factories to rush to Vietnam to find processing partners. In addition, businesses may increase the imports of raw materials for export production and increase processing for the Japanese and US markets.
According to Ms. Le Hang, it is forecasted that Vietnam's seafood exports will gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year. With adaptation and adjustment to the market context, it is predicted that seafood businesses will help the industry's export revenue recover to 9.5 billion USD - 10 billion USD in 2024. In particular, the shrimp industry aims to target of 4 billion USD, pangasius reaches about 1.9 billion USD, the remaining seafood products are forecast to earn about 3.6 - 3.8 billion USD.
It is estimated that by the end of December 2023, total seafood production reached 9.269 million tonnes, an increase of 2% compared to 2022 (9.087 million tonnes). Seafood export turnover in 2023 was estimated to reach about 9.2 billion USD, of which shrimp exports to reach about 3.45 billion USD; pangasius about 1.9 billion USD; mollusks about 0.8 billion USD; and tuna is about 0.9 billion USD.
CK
Source: VITIC/haiquanonline.com.vn