AsemconnectVietnam - On Wednesday, domestic pepper prices in Vietnam's Central Highlands rose by 500 VND to VND80,000 to VND82,000 per kg compared to Yesterday, according to Kinhtedothi.vn.

In Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, the maximum price for pepper rose to VND82,000 per kg, while in Gia Lai province, the lowest price to VND80,000 per kg. Farmers in Binh Phuoc sold pepper for VND82,000 per kilogram, in Dong Nai province for VND80,500 per kilogram, and in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces for VND81,500 per kilogram.
Việt Nam's pepper output for the 2022-2023 crop has all been exported, so the amount of pepper inventory for 2024 will be the lowest level in recent years, according to Việt Nam Pepper Association.
Việt Nam's pepper export volume in 2023 is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes, including volume from import and inventory from the previous year. Hoàng Thị Liên, chairwoman of the Việt Nam Pepper Association, said that despite difficult market conditions, the industry has achieved good export performance in the first 10 months of this year. In the last months of the year, the exports could depend on the amount of inventory carried over from previous years.
The association forecasts that global pepper output in the 2023-2024 crop is estimated to decrease because output from pepper-producing countries is estimated to decrease. However, the reduction in volume is still lower than the decrease in global consumption demand, so it is forecast that pepper price is unlikely to increase continuously in the long term, according to the association.
The domestic businesses also estimate that Việt Nam's output in the 2023-2024 pepper crop will decrease by about 10-15 percent to 160,000-165,000 tonnes.
Excluding China, the upcoming consumption demand of countries worldwide may decline due to the impact of the economic crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. The world economic recession will decrease purchasing power in the future.
Besides that, consumption of major markets, including the US and EU - key export markets of Việt Nam, is unlikely to recover in the short term. Analysts estimate that next year's output is expected to decrease in India by 20 percent, Indonesia by 20-30 percent, Việt Nam by 15 percent, and Brazil by 15 percent. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Import-Export Department, forecasts that Việt Nam's pepper exports will remain at a low level because the domestic supply is no longer abundant and consumption demand in the US and EU markets has not really improved. At present, the amount of exported pepper originating from Việt Nam has run out. The total amount of inventory and import is about 80,000 tonnes, including the inventory of about 30,000 tonnes.
In the last months of this year, the enterprises will export the imported and pre-existing inventory pepper with a volume of about 50,000 tonnes. In the long term, Việt Nam's pepper supply is forecast to be in short supply due to fierce competition from other crops such as durian and passion fruit, according to the association.
Liên said that if the cutting of pepper trees for growing fruit trees is prolonged, Việt Nam may face a pepper supply shortage in three years. That may cause farmers to miss out on trading at high prices.
Following are domestic pepper prices on January 3, 2024, in the main pepper growing and consumption regions:

T.Huong
Source: Vitic/Kinhtedothi