AsemconnectVietnam - It is estimated that by the end of July 2023, Vietnam's seafood exports reached nearly 5 billion USD, down by 25% compared to the same period of 2022.

If the situation is favorable, it is expected that the exports of the whole year may reach 9 billion USD, down by 2 billion USD compared to 2022.
Seafood exports may reach 9 billion USD in 2023
It is estimated that by the end of July of 2023, Vietnam's seafood exports reached nearly 5 billion USD, down by 25% compared to the same period of 2022, cccording to Ms. Le Hang, communications director of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP). The deepest decrease was still pangasius (-36%), shrimp and tuna decreased by 27% compared to the same period last year.
In July of 2023, seafood exports were estimated at 830 million USD, down by 11% compared to the same period of 2022. In which, shrimp exports decreased by 10% to about 345 million USD, pangasius exports reached 150 million USD, down by 20%, tuna exports decreased slightly by 3% and other fish decreased by 12% compared to July of 2022.
From a market perspective, the most obvious recovery signal was in the Chinese market, in July of 2023, it increased by 45% over the same period last year, reaching nearly 180 million USD. The exports to other main markets were still 5-40% lower than July of 2022.
From the above fact, the representative of VASEP gave 3 factors that will determine the optimistic export scenario in the second half of the year. Firstly, the economic performance of major markets is forecasted to be more positive in the second half of the year, plus the fact that the import demand of markets such as the US and China is tending to increase again, when inventories are gradually decreasing and they prepare orders for the year-end festival and new year.
Secondly, the internal resources of enterprises and the seafood supply chain production community are supported in a timely manner in terms of capital, production and business conditions to keep a stable supply of raw materials and ensure the availability of goods when the market needs it.
Third, export products have stable supply and reduced prices, competitive selling prices before other countries.
With the above favorable factors, VASEP forecasts an optimistic scenario, seafood exports in the remaining 5 months of 2023 may reach over 4 billion USD, and the total seafood export turnover in 2023 may reach over 9 billion USD, down by 15%-16% compared to 2022.
In which, the exports of shrimp are forecasted to earn about 3.5-3.6 billion USD in foreign currency, down by 16%-18%. The exports of pangasius decreased by 28% to reach 1.7-1.8 billion USD. The exports of tuna and squid and octopus are expected to decrease by 14-15% to reach 870 million USD and 650 million USD, respectively. Marine fish exports are estimated at 1.9-2 billion USD, down slightly compared with 2022.
The main markets will certainly still bring in less revenue than in 2022. In which, the exports to the US and South Korea will be 24-25% lower than in 2022, the exports to the EU will decrease by 18%. Meanwhile, the Japanese market will be better thanks to the value of value-added goods and thanks to the processing and processing segment for this market, especially marine fish species.
The Chinese market is still the biggest expectation for seafood enterprises today, after opening, the trade is gradually returning to normal. Hopefully in the second half of the year, China's economy will be more stable, people's income and consumption will gradually increase, the market will adapt to the new context, etc. and then, seafood exports will have a chance to recover with similar predictions with a turnover of 2023 with the export turnover of about 1.8 billion USD for both China and Hong Kong.
Waiting for the cool breeze
According to Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company, from mid-2022 until now, shrimp consumption tends to weaken. Shrimp businesses have their own business strategies, most of which are "broken" by this unexpected bad situation, leaving many businesses with trillions of debt because of the unsatisfactory business situation.
However, the Government and ministries and sectors are stepping in so that these businesses can extend their debt and add capital at preferential interest rates to continue to work hand in hand with farmers, together to overcome the current great hardship. "The timely attention from the Government at this time is like a strong cool breeze covering the heat that the shrimp industry is experiencing, which will surely have a great positive effect," said Mr. Luc.
A less optimistic scenario is that when the market has shown signs of recovery, the demand will increase again, but Vietnam's seafood products will still find it difficult to compete in price and supply with other countries such as Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and Thailand.
The industry's problems do not have immediate and long-term solutions: high production costs due to high input costs such as feed and seed, declining profits, lack of capital to maintain investment for the next crops, farmers abandoned their ponds, leading to a lack of raw materials to meet orders for the second half of the year.
That scenario can lead to the prediction that exports in the last 5 months of the year can only reach about 3.5-3.7 billion USD, so, in the whole year of 2023, the exports may only bring in about 8.5 - 8 billion USD. In which, the deepest decline is still in the two industries of pangasius and shrimp. The country’s seafood exports may be worse if the results of the EU inspection team's anti-IUU anti-fishing program inspection in October do not meet the expectation of removing the yellow card.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn