AsemconnectVietnam - With the recovery of the market and a stable source of raw materials, it is forecasted that in 2023, seafood exports will earn over 9 billion USD.

The scenario for seafood exports in the last months of 2023
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), it is estimated that by the end of July of 2023, Vietnam’s seafood exports will reach nearly 5 billion USD, down by 25% compared to the same period of 2022. In which, the exports of pangasius were down by 36%, and the exports of shrimp and tuna down by 27% over the same period last year.
Particularly in July of 2023, Vietnam’s seafood exports were estimated at 830 million USD, down by 11% compared to the same period of 2022. In which, shrimp exports decreased by 10% to about 345 million USD, pangasius exports reached 150 million USD, down by 20%, tuna exports were slightly down by 3% and other fish down by 12% compared to July of 2022.
From a market perspective, the most obvious recovery signal was in the Chinese market. In July of 2023, it increased by 45% over the same period last year, reaching nearly 180 million USD. The exports to other main markets were still 5 - 40% lower than July of 2022. According to Ms. Le Hang - Communications Director of VASEP, there were 3 factors that will determine the optimistic export scenario in the second half of the year.
Specifically, the economic performance of major markets is forecasted to be more positive in the second half of the year, plus the fact that the import demand of markets such as the US and China is tending to increase again, when the amount of inventory is expected to increase. The stock is running low and preparing orders for the year-end festival and the new year.
The internal resources of enterprises and the seafood supply chain production community are supported in a timely manner in terms of capital, production and business conditions to maintain a stable supply of raw materials, and ensure the availability of goods to meet the demand.
Export products have stable supply and reduced prices, competitive selling prices compared to other countries.
With that favorable scenario, Vietnam’s seafood exports in the remaining 5 months of 2023 will probably reach over 4 billion USD, then the total export turnover in 2023 will reach over 9 billion USD, a decrease of 15 - 16% compared to the same period of 2022.
In which, the exports of shrimp are forecasted to earn about 3.5-3.6 billion USD, down by 16-18%. The exports of pangasius reached 1.7-1.8 billion USD, down by 28%. The exports of tuna and squid and octopus may decrease by 14-15% to reach 870 million USD and USD 650 million, respectively. Marine fish exports are estimated at 1.9-2 billion USD, down slightly from 2022.
The main markets will certainly still bring in less revenue than in 2022. In which, the exports to the United States and South Korea will be 24-25% lower than in 2022, the exports to the EU will decrease by 18%; while the exports to the Japanese market will be better thanks to the value of value-added goods and thanks to the processing and processing segment for this market, especially marine fish.
The Chinese market is still the biggest expectation for seafood enterprises today, because after opening, the trade is gradually returning to normal. Hopefully, in the second half of the year, China's economy will be more stable, people's income and consumption will be improved, the market will adapt to the new context... Then, seafood exports will have a chance to recover with the anticipation of about 1.8 billion USD for both China and Hong Kong (China) to the turnover of 2023.
In the less optimistic scenario, when the market has shown signs of recovery, the demand will increase again, but Vietnam's seafood products are still difficult to compete in price and supply with other countries such as Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Thailand, etc.
The industry's problems do not have immediate and long-term solutions: high production costs due to high input costs such as feed and seed, declining profits, lack of capital to maintain investment to raise the next crop, farmers abandoned their ponds, leading to a lack of raw materials to meet orders for the second half of the year.
That scenario can lead to the prediction that exports in the last 5 months of the year can only reach about 3.5-3.7 billion USD, so, in the whole year of 2023, the exports may only bring in about 8.5 - 8.7 billion USD. In which, the deepest decline is still in the two industries of pangasius and shrimp. Seafood exports may be worse if the results of the EU inspection team's anti-IUU anti-fishing program inspection in October do not meet the expectation of removing the yellow card.
Striving for the goal of 10 billion USD
Mr. Tran Dinh Luan - Director of Fisheries Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) - said that up to this point, aquaculture production is still growing. Some products are selling very well, especially fish.
Regarding export targets, in the first 6 months of 2023, seafood export decreased by 27.4%. In the first 7 months of the year, this decrease was 25.4% with an export turnover of nearly 5 billion USD. Therefore, the figure of 9 billion seafood export turnover of the whole year 2023 is certain to reach. However, to achieve the goal of 10 billion USD, more efforts are needed. "We still keep the target of exporting 10 billion USD of seafood this year," said Mr. Tran Dinh Luan.
For the seafood industry, Mr. Phung Duc Tien - Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development - said that the ministry has not yet adjusted the export target for this year. “VASEP said there have been positive signals about the market both for shrimp and pangasius. Pangasius exported to the United States reached over 50% of output. However, the United States is pressuring prices. U.S. stocks and inventories fell, while demand was flat. Therefore, we need to prepare the reserves so that when the opportunity comes, we can seize this opportunity. The same is true for shrimp exports,” said Mr. Phung Duc Tien.
Besides, according to Mr. Phung Duc Tien, currently a credit package of 15,000 billion VND is being implemented, which will create conditions for businesses to stock up on goods to be able to seize market opportunities when the time comes. "With the direction of the Government, the State Bank, and commercial banks to lower interest rates; this is also a contributing factor for us to reserve, process and export and to ensure the efficiency for seafood processing enterprises" said Mr. Phung Duc Tien.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn