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Vietnam’s pepper exports in January and 2024 forecast 

 Wednesday, February 21,2024

AsemconnectVietnam - Vietnam's pepper exports in January of 2024 were estimated to reach 20,000 tonnes, worth of 79 million USD, down by 1.4% in volume, but up by 1.9% in value compared to December of 2023.

According to the data from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), it was estimated that Vietnam's pepper exports in January of 2024 reached 20,000 tonnes, worth of 79 million USD, down by 1.4% in volume, but up by 1.9% in value compared to December of 2023. In comparison to January of 2023, Vietnam's pepper exports increased by 60.2% in volume and 83.9% in value.
Vietnam's average export price of pepper in January of 2024 was estimated to reach 3,953 USD/tonne, up by 3.4% compared to December of 2023 and up by 14.8% compared to January of 2023.
Vietnam's pepper export markets in 2023
Vietnam's pepper exports in 2023 increased by 16.3% in volume, but decreased by 6.2% in value compared to 2022
In 2023, Asia was Vietnam's largest pepper export market, with the Chinese market leading the way.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), in 2023, Vietnam exported 264,094 tonnes of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 236,148 tonnes, white pepper reached 27,946 tonnes.
The total export turnover reached 906.5 million USD, black pepper reached 770.6 million USD, white pepper reached 135.9 million USD. As compared to 2022, export volume increased by 13.8%, but export turnover decreased by 8%.
Asia was Vietnam's largest pepper export market, accounting for 52.7%. In comparison to 2022, the export volume increased by 29.6%, of which the Chinese market was the leader with 60,135 tonnes, accounting for 22.8% of Vietnam's export market share and an increase of 174%.
The next was the Indian market with 12,812 tonnes, accounting for 4.9% and increasing by 4.2%; UAE reached 12,132 tonnes, accounting for 4.6%, down by 24.7%; the Philippines reached 8,021 tonnes, accounting for 3%, an increase of 27.5%.
The American region ranked second in export market share, accounting for 22.8% and exports increased by 0.3%, of which the United States was the second largest export market of Vietnamese pepper, reaching 54,271 tonnes, accounting for 20.5% of the total, down by 0.8% compared to last year.
The exports to European markets accounted for 19.5%, down by 1.4% compared to last year. The main export markets include: Germany reaching 9,216 tonnes, accounting for 3.5%, down by 4.5%; the Netherlands reached 7,946 tonnes, accounting for 3.0%, down by 1.9%; Russia reached 5,490 tonnes, accounting for 2.1%, down by 12.7%; UK reached 4,923 tonnes, accounting for 1.9%, down by 3.0%.
The exports to Turkey increased by 72.8%, reaching 4,482 tonnes; to France increased by 37.2%, reaching 4,134 tonnes; to Spain increased by 11.5%, reaching 2,939 tonnes and exports to Ireland decreased by 75.8%, reaching 1,194 tonnes.
The exports to Africa increased by 7.8%, of which to Egypt reached 4,247 tonnes, an increase of 23.5%; to South Africa reached 2,408 tonnes, an increase of 17.0%; and to Senegal reached 2,372 tonnes, an increase of 41.1%.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam's pepper area in 2023 will reach 115,000 hectares, down by 5,000 hectares compared to 2022. Vietnam pepper output in 2023 may reach 190,000 tonnes, an increase 3.8% compared to 2022, according to VPSA's assessment.
The average domestic pepper price at the beginning of the year reached 57,000 VND/kg and stood at the lowest level since March of 2021. The price increased at the end of the first quarter of 2023 and did not change much until November of 2023. In December of 2023, the price continuously increased, sometimes reaching 86,000 VND/kg, leading to the average price for the whole month reaching 81,000 VND/kg, an increase of 42% compared to the beginning of the year.
The reason prices increased at the end of the year was due to the lack of inventory. The US market suddenly had strong consumption in the last 3 months of the year, especially December when the import volume reached over 6,200 tonnes (the highest import month). It is possible that orders were delivered by businesses before the end of the year, forcing them to buy goods, combined with a slow harvest season in Dak Nong, causing a shortage of goods, leading to an increase in domestic prices.
The increase in domestic prices also led to an increase in export prices of black pepper and white pepper. On average, the export price of black pepper at the end of the year increased by 5.0% and the price of white pepper increased by 1.9%.
Vietnam was the second largest pepper supplier in the Chinese market
Vietnam was the second largest pepper supply in the Chinese market in 2023, reaching approximately 3,360 tonnes, worth of 13.23 million USD.
According to the data from the China Customs Authority, the country's pepper imports in 2023 reached 9,180d tonnes, worth of 39.75 million USD, an increase of 4.5% in volume, but a decrease of 6.1% in value compared to 2022. China's annual pepper import demand is about 65,000 - 70,000 tonnes.
In 2023, China's average import price of pepper from the world reached 4,328 USD/tonne, down by 10.2% compared to 2022. In particular, China's average import price of pepper from most countries decreased, except for India, which increased by 14.5% to 6,493 USD/tonne.
Regarding supply structure, in 2023, China imported pepper from 25 countries and territories around the world. In particular, Indonesia was the largest pepper supplier to China in 2023, with over 4,000 tonnes, worth of 17.63 million USD, down by 11.5% in volume and 19.5% in value compared to the previous year.
Indonesia's pepper market share in China's total imports decreased from 52.1% in 2022 to 44.09% in 2023.
Vietnam was the second largest pepper supplier in the Chinese market in 2023, with an output of approximately 3,360 tonnes, worth of 13.23 million USD, an increase of 18% in volume and an increase of 1.0% in value compared to 2022.
Vietnam's pepper market share in China's total imports increased from 32.39% in 2022 to 36.57% in 2023.
In 2023, China increased pepper imports from the Brazilian and Malaysian markets, but decreased the imports from India.
Normally, after the Lunar New Year, Vietnam is in peak autumn season, which is also the time when Chinese traders increase their search for goods sources.
In 2024, China's pepper import demand is forecast to increase compared to 2023. This is an opportunity for pepper exporters around the world.
Currently, pepper is mainly used as a spice and in the food industry. It is a product favored by Chinese consumers and widely used in many localities, including: Sichuan, South County, North County and some provinces in Northern China.
In particular, domestic tourism has a strong recovery trend, also leading to increased consumer demand and use of food and beverage services. Besides, this year's cold and long winter makes many people turn to hot and spicy dishes such as hot pot, grilled, etc., in which pepper is one of the indispensable spices.
Forecast of Vietnam's pepper production in 2024
According to the Import-Export Department (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade), pepper exports in 2024 are forecast to be favorable in price. Vietnam's 2024 pepper crop output is forecast to decrease, although the world economic situation still poses many risks, however, businesses are forced to buy reserves to compensate for shortages. This is said to be the reason why pepper prices increased sharply.
In 2024, Vietnam's pepper industry will likely still exploit well the US, China, EU and other potential markets. With its position as the world's No. 1 pepper supplier thanks to stable supply and guaranteed quality, Vietnamese pepper will easily penetrate the markets.
Vietnam is currently the world's No. 1 pepper producer, contributing about 40% of global supply. Pepper output is forecast to continue to decrease to 180,000 - 200,000 tonnes in 2024 from 220,000 tonnes in 2023.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, recent prolonged heavy rains in the Central Highlands and southern provinces have brought difficulties and challenges for pepper growers. This is causing concerns about a possible decline in output in the next harvest in 2024.
The International Pepper Association (IPC) forecasts that global pepper production in 2024 will continue to decrease by 1.1%, equivalent to a decrease of 6,000 tonnes. This decrease is mainly from Vietnam, while Brazil and India are forecast to increase output in 2024. Other producing countries can maintain pepper output with negligible changes.
Adverse weather conditions caused by the El Nino phenomenon are affecting pepper productivity and harvest. In particular, the weather is "very dry" in Brazil, and prolonged heavy rains in the Central Highlands and southern provinces of Vietnam will have an impact on reducing pepper production in the near future.
IPC also forecasts that global pepper prices will fluctuate in an upward trend in the first quarter of 2024 due to continued decline in output in main producing countries. This will also impact Vietnam's export pepper prices.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn/haiquanonline.com.vn

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