Fish groups and Asian markets lead growth
According to Vietnam Customs data, seafood export in October 2026 are estimated at US$1.315 billion, a 13.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Cumulative figure for the first 10 months reached US$10.459 billion, a 12.1% increase. However, behind this result is a shift in growth drivers between product groups and export markets.
In October, export of various types of fish are estimated at US$309 million, a 55% increase, equivalent to nearly US$110 million more than the same period last year. This product group alone contributed approximately 70% of total industry's increased export value this month. Other product groups also maintained positive results: Pangasius export reached over $249 million, up 14.9%; tuna increased by 13.4%; and squid and octopus increased by 14.8%.
Notably, pangasius export after 10 months approached $2 billion, an increase of 11%. Outlook for this product is supported by developments in supply and prices in global whitefish market.
According to Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), Atlantic cod prices remain high due to limited supply, while pollock also faces pressure from raw material prices. Price gap between wild-caught and farmed fish creates further opportunities for pangasius to access distributors in moderately priced whitefish segment.
Regarding markets, China and Hong Kong (China) continue to play a crucial role, with export turnover reaching US$2.62 billion in the first 10 months, a 30.3% increase. This market contributed approximately 54% of total increase in export turnover for entire industry.
In addition, seafood exports to ASEAN reached US$722 million, a 22.9% increase. China, Hong Kong (China) and ASEAN combined contributed nearly US$745 million, accounting for about two-thirds of increase in seafood exports in the first 10 months. This shows that purchasing power in Asia is a key support for the industry's growth.
In EU and Japan, export showed improvement in October, increasing by 22.1% and 6.7% respectively. As a result, cumulative growth in the first 10 months in these two markets reached 1.1% and 2.8% respectively. However, additional turnover was only about US$49 million, still quite small compared to the contributions of China and ASEAN. This disparity shows that recovery momentum across markets is uneven. While some Asian markets are experiencing significant growth, EU and Japan are only showing modest improvement and the US has shifted to negative growth.
Shrimp export are under pressure, awaiting results of US tariffs.
Contrary to positive developments in other fish groups, shrimp export in October reached nearly $474 million, down 4.9% year-on-year. Of this, whiteleg shrimp exports decreased by 8.3%, to nearly $307 million.
For the first 10 months of the year, whiteleg shrimp exports reached $2.62 billion, only increasing by 4%. Meanwhile, green lobster export reached nearly $915 million, an increase of 31%, contributing over $216 million, equivalent to about 62% of total increase in shrimp exports.
Thus, 9% increase in shrimp exports is being significantly supported by lobster. Whiteleg shrimp, flagship product of shrimp farming and processing industry, continues to experience slow growth, indicating an uneven recovery across product categories.
VASEP (Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors) notes that this trend aligns with international shrimp consumption landscape. In the first eight months, US shrimp imports decreased by 0.7%, EU imports by 2.3%, while China saw a 25.5% increase. While demand in major markets hasn't fully recovered, Ecuador's export increased by 19.8%.
Given this supply-demand dynamic, Vietnamese shrimp exports are unlikely to see a general price increase to improve year-end export results. In the US market, seafood exports in October decreased by 11.8%, to nearly $200 million, bringing total for the first ten months down to $1.63 billion, a 1.2% decrease. This decline in the US market, coupled with the drop in whiteleg shrimp prices, shows that the shrimp industry still faces many obstacles in its recovery process.
One factor of concern for businesses is the final outcome of the 20th administrative review of anti-dumping duties on shrimp (POR20), expected to be announced in early November. According to VASEP, preliminary results determined the anti-dumping duty for STAPIMX at 6.30%, the Fimex group at 10.76%, and 27 individual businesses at 7.56%. Final results will impact costs and ability to secure shrimp orders to the United States in the near future.
If duty is significantly reduced compared to preliminary level, prospects for negotiating orders may be more positive. However, given short time remaining in the year, impact may be more apparent in orders placed in early 2027. Conversely, if the duty remains near or higher than the preliminary level, it is difficult to expect the US market to provide strong impetus for shrimp exports in near future.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn