AsemconnectVietnam - In the first half of October 2026, Vietnam’s merchandise exports reached $29.25 billion, an increase of 12.41% compared to the first half of September, while the imports fell by 4.9%.

This resulted in a trade surplus of approximately $1.82 billion, marking the second consecutive period of a trade surplus.
According to the preliminary reports from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the total value of Vietnam’s merchandise trade in the first half of October of 2026 reached approximately $56.68 billion, up by 3.31% from the first half of September. Cumulatively, as of October 15, the total trade turnover reached $945.07 billion, an increase of 31.43% compared to the same period last year.
On the export side, the growth remained concentrated in a few key product categories rather than being evenly distributed across the entire export structure. Computers, electronic products, and components continued to lead, reaching approximately $11.59 billion, an increase of 21.17%, or over $2.03 billion, compared to the previous period. This represents the largest absolute gain during the period, highlighting the electronics sector as the primary driver behind the improvement in export value.
In addition to electronics, the exports of machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts reached approximately $3.58 billion, an increase of 5% (up by $170.41 million from the first half of September). The exports of textiles and garments reached approximately $1.57 billion, a 2.8% increase, while footwear exports reached nearly $980 million, an increase of 23.82%. Conversely, mobile phones and components represent a significant drag. Despite being a major export category, with a value exceeding $1 billion, this sector saw an 11.61% decline, falling by approximately $338.07 million to roughly $2.57 billion compared to the previous period.
The divergent performance between computers, electronic products, and components on one hand, and mobile phones on the other, indicates that growth within the technology sector is uneven. It also highlights that export growth remains heavily dependent on specific industries linked to the foreign-invested (FDI) sector.
Meanwhile, during the first half of October, total import value fell by nearly 5%, a decrease of approximately $1.41 billion, driven primarily by a decline in imports of production-related goods. The imports of computers, electronic products, and components dropped by nearly $973.36 million, falling to approximately $12.15 billion, even as exports within the same category rose by over $2.03 billion.
A similar trend was evident in the textile, garment, and footwear sectors. Tge imports of raw materials and accessories for these industries fell by 12% to approximately $292.91 million, while fabric imports declined by 9.36% to about $633.81 million. In contrast, the exports of textiles and garments grew by 2.8%, and footwear exports surged by 23.82%.
If exports continue to rise while input imports decline over several consecutive periods, it could signal an enhanced capacity to generate domestic value-added. However, if a drop in imports is followed, after a time lag, by a slowdown in exports, the current trend may simply reflect standard procurement and production cycles, rather than a sustainable improvement in the ability to transform inputs into higher-value products. Thus, for several key product categories, exports have continued to grow even as the value of imported inputs has declined.
In the manufacturing sector, finished goods may be produced using components or raw materials imported in previous weeks or months, which then undergo assembly, testing, and final shipment. Consequently, export figures for a given period may reflect inputs imported earlier, or they may result from adjustments to import schedules in line with the progress of specific orders.
In contrast, the "telephones and components" category saw a decline in both export and import values. The exports in this group fell by 11.61% to approximately $2.57 billion, while imports dropped by 10.02% to nearly $549.91 million.
When both imported inputs and exported outputs decline, it may indicate a slowdown in production activities or a reduction in orders at certain stages of the supply chain. If this trend persists, a decrease in imports should not necessarily be viewed as a positive sign of greater self-sufficiency in raw materials; rather, it could reflect a contraction in production.
Regarding the foreign-invested (FDI) sector, the exports reached $24.6 billion, an increase of 12.76%, while the imports fell by 6.29% to approximately $20.85 billion (a decrease of nearly $1.4 billion). As a result, the FDI sector recorded a trade surplus of about $3.75 billion, whereas the domestic business sector ran a trade deficit of approximately $1.92 billion.
This divergence highlights that the nation’s overall trade surplus remains heavily dependent on the FDI sector. During this period, the trade surplus generated by the FDI sector not only offset the deficit from domestic enterprises but also contributed to an overall national trade surplus of approximately $1.82 billion. This helps strengthen the trade balance and foreign currency earnings from exports.
A more critical issue is the extent to which export activities create spillover effects for domestic enterprises. As local firms become more deeply integrated into the supply of raw materials, components, and production-related services, a greater share of value can be retained within the country, rather than being concentrated primarily in processing and assembly stages.
Overall, a strong surge in exports combined with a decline in imports led to an improvement in the trade balance during the first half of October. However, to assess the quality of this outcome, it is necessary to monitor two factors over the coming months: whether export growth can be sustained amid fluctuations in the import of production inputs, and whether domestic enterprises are increasing their participation in supply chains. These developments will reveal whether the current trade surplus is accompanied by an enhancement in production capacity and greater domestic value addition.
Source: VITIC