AsemconnectVietnam - Vietnam’s seafood exports in September of 2026 were estimated at $1.135 billion, an 11.9% year-on-year increase, bringing the nine-month total to $9.103 billion, up by 11.4%.

Behind this double-digit growth was a widening divergence between markets: the exports to China-Hong Kong and ASEAN surged, whereas shipments to the US, the EU, and Japan declined in September.
September export value remained above $1.1 billion, with a faster growth rate than in August, though the total value was slightly lower than the previous month. These results indicate that the industry maintained high trading volumes heading into the year-end period, albeit with uneven growth momentum. While some product categories saw rapid gains, shrimp, the sector's largest component, grew by only 3.9%.
Slow shrimp export growth; pangasius and marine products make stronger contributions
Shrimp exports in September were estimated at $467 million, bringing the nine-month total to $3.75 billion, an increase of 11%. Accounting for approximately 41% of total seafood exports, shrimp performance continues to significantly influence the industry's overall results. The modest growth in September suggests that the potential for expanding orders is constrained by supply competition and market absorption capacity.
The data released at the Global Shrimp Forum in September revealed that China's shrimp imports are outpacing consumption, while EU imports of raw shrimp materials have declined, showing mixed trends across different regions. In the US, sales volume for frozen shrimp fell in August, even as revenue increased. These developments mean that the growth in Vietnam's shrimp exports cannot yet be viewed as a sign of a broad-based recovery in global demand.
Pangasius (Tra fish) performed better in September, reaching approximately $214 million (up by 18.6%); the year-to-date total reached $1.74 billion (up by 10.7%). Tightened supplies of certain wild-caught whitefish species have created further opportunities for pangasius. In Japan, Kyokuyo’s continued promotion of pangasius through professional distribution channels is a noteworthy development, even though the market remains small. Price advantages and stable supplies are helping to generate greater interest in the product.
Tuna exports reached approximately $82 million in September (up by 13.1%), bringing the nine-month total to $716 million (up by 3.5%). While the monthly growth rate outperformed the year-to-date figure, the outlook remains contingent on US import conditions and EU catch documentation requirements. Improved US sales of canned tuna are supporting demand, though this has not yet translated into a corresponding rise in orders from Vietnam.
Other seafood categories also made significant contributions: various fish species reached $1.741 billion over the nine-month period (up by 12.2%); squid and octopus reached $606 million (up by 15.4%); and crabs and other crustaceans reached $354 million (up by 31.6%). Shellfish exports saw a 25.2% year-to-date increase, reaching $231 million, but fell by 3.5% in September alone, indicating that the growth momentum is beginning to slow. China and ASEAN offset declines in major markets.
The China-Hong Kong market stood out, with September export value reaching approximately $315 million, a 39.9% increase. The accumulated exports hit $2.3 billion, up by 33%, accounting for about one-quarter of Vietnam's total seafood exports. Based on available data, the growth in this market contributed roughly 62% of the industry's total export value increase compared to the same period last year.
However, China's purchasing power must be viewed alongside domestic supply and competing imports. The resumption of fishing operations in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in early September boosted domestic seafood supplies, while the reinstatement of export privileges for certain Ecuadorian shrimp facilities expanded options for buyers. Consequently, Vietnam's strong growth may be accompanied by downward pressure on prices.
The exports to ASEAN reached nearly $84 million in September, up by 45.4%; the nine-month total stood at $620 million, a 21% increase. The exports to South Korea also rose by 16.4% during the month, bringing the nine-month figure to $652 million, up by 6.1%. Together with a 17.3% cumulative increase in other markets, these results helped the industry maintain growth while facing challenges in traditional markets.
The exports to the US fell by 3.4% in September to $176 million; the nine-month total reached $1.43 billion, an increase of only 0.9%. Additional tariff costs and requirements related to the MMPA and COA continued to impact trade. Retail demand showed mixed trends: sales volumes of canned seafood increased, whereas revenue growth for fresh and frozen products was driven primarily by higher prices.
The exports to the EU dropped by 12.8% in September, reaching $93 million; The cumulative figure reached $843 million, a 3% decrease. Meanwhile, the exports to Japan fell by 13.7% during the month, slowing nine-month growth to just 0.8% and bringing the total to $1.25 billion. The simultaneous decline in these two markets indicates that positive momentum in pangasius or processed products was insufficient to drive growth for the entire product category.
Exports in Q4 is expected to fall; full-year exports projected to reach $12 billion
Following a period of accelerated growth in the third quarter, seafood exports are expected to slow down in the fourth quarter. As many orders for year-end consumption were imported and delivered early, demand for additional purchases is unlikely to sustain the high levels seen in recent months. With nine-month exports estimated at $9.103 billion, the total for the year could reach approximately $12 billion.
Challenges stem from both supply and market demand. Shrimp, pangasius, and tilapia all face raw material constraints, alongside intensifying market competition and buyer price sensitivity. Expanding export volumes for wild-caught seafood is also difficult due to a lack of suitable raw materials and strict requirements regarding product origin. Consequently, even where demand persists in certain markets, the ability to fulfill orders may remain limited.
While China–Hong Kong and ASEAN continue to support exports, they are unlikely to fully offset the slowdowns observed in the US, EU, and Japanese markets. Fourth-quarter results are likely to fall short of the third quarter's figures; although full-year exports may still exceed the previous year's total, the growth rate will narrow significantly compared to the double-digit pace seen in the first nine months.
Source: VITIC/vasep.com.vn