World prices are rising, but Vietnamese rice export are still falling.
According to a report by Vietnam Food Association (VFA), White Rice Oryza Index (WRI), reflecting weighted average price of white rice exported globally, ended the first week of September 2026 at US$450/tonne, up US$5/tonne from the previous week, US$13/tonne from the previous month and US$37/tonne higher than the same period in 2025.
Rice prices are trading near their highest level in two years, amidst lower-than-normal rainfall in some areas, predicted strengthening of El Niño, and rising fertilizer and fuel costs. These factors increase risk to production in major producing countries in Asia, the region that accounts for the majority of global rice production and export. According to market assessments, El Niño combined with positive IOD could cause rice production in Southeast Asia to decrease by approximately 2-8%.
However, it is noteworthy that the recovery in world rice prices has not yet clearly translated into Vietnam's export results. In August 2026, Vietnam exported 538,856 tonnes of rice, valued at US$279.633 million. Cumulatively, up to August 31st, rice export reached 6.029 million tonnes, valued at approximately US$2.9 billion. Compared to the same period in 2025, export volume decreased by 5.12%, while value decreased by 10.82%.
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, rice export turnover for the whole year of 2026 is expected to reach approximately US$3.94 billion, a 4% decrease compared to 2025. The main reason is low export price level in the early months of the year. The price recovery from July is expected to contribute to improving export turnover in the later months of the year.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Production - Trading Co., Ltd. (Vinh Long), said that in terms of volume, rice exports this year can still meet the target. However, export value is unlikely to grow strongly due to low rice prices in the early months of the year and continued pressure during the summer-autumn crop season. “From now until the end of the year, if there are more new orders, especially when export prices improve, the situation could be more favorable,” Mr. Thanh stated.
According to Mr. Thanh, Vietnam is diversifying its product lines such as glutinous rice, Japonica rice, T25 rice, and expanding into several new markets. These segments can help compensate for decline in traditional white rice. Important thing is that businesses must be more proactive in the market, while farmers need to be guided to produce according to actual demand. When supply and demand are balanced and businesses have sufficient capital to purchase, rice prices will have the conditions to recover.
Philippines opens its doors, but competition doesn't decrease.
One of the factors expected to boost the rice market in the last months of the year is the import demand from the Philippines. The country is projected to import approximately 5 million tons of rice in 2026, a record high, to compensate for declining domestic production due to El Niño and to increase reserves for early 2027. As of August 13th, the Philippines had imported approximately 3.46 million tons of rice, exceeding the total import volume for the entire year of 2025.
Notably, Vietnam accounts for about 74% of the Philippines' imported rice supply. This is clearly a significant advantage for Vietnamese rice. Its favorable geographical location, stable supply and existing trade relations enable Vietnamese businesses to quickly access this market when demand increases. However, according to export businesses, the Philippines' high import demand does not mean Vietnam can easily increase its export value.
Firstly, the Philippines is both increasing import in the short term and investing heavily to reduce its dependence on external supply sources in the long term. The government is proposing a budget of 69.9 billion pesos, equivalent to approximately US$1.15 billion, for three major rice programs in the 2027 national budget. The funding is expected to focus on seeds, agricultural supplies, machinery, irrigation, credit, training, technology and distribution. The goal is to increase production, raise farmers' incomes and ensure consumers have access to affordable rice.
Secondly, competition in regional market remains intense. India continues to hold an advantage due to its abundant supply and competitive prices. In the first week of September, price of Indian 5% broken rice was around US$371/tonne, an increase of US$4/tonne compared to the previous week. Although milled rice production for the 2026/27 crop year is expected to decrease by 4.5%, to 147 million tonnes, high government inventories help maintain ample supply. Rice export for this crop year are projected to reach approximately 25 million tonnes.
In Thailand, price of 5% broken white rice is around US$476/tonne, up US$9/tonne from last week, US$24/tonne from last month, and about US$121/tonne from the same period last year. Pakistan also recorded a price of 5% broken rice at around US$415/tonne, up US$66/tonne from the same period in 2025.
More notably, Indonesia is beginning to return to international rice market. The country currently has no plans to import rice in 2026 thanks to high domestic production and government reserves. As of August 21st, rice reserves stood at approximately 5.17 million tonnes. Indonesia has reached an initial agreement to export 1,000 tonnes of high-quality rice to Malaysia, with the potential to increase to 200,000 tonnes per year. Indonesia's rice production in 2026 is projected to reach approximately 38.6 million tonnes, while national reserves are around 5.2 million tonnes. The country is also promoting use of high-yield rice varieties capable of achieving 10-13 tonnes/ha and plans to subsidize improved seeds for at least 1 million hectares by 2027. If implemented effectively, this could be a factor in changing the supply dynamics of the Southeast Asian rice market in the coming years.
On other hand, global supply remains high, giving buyers more options. According to FAO forecasts, global rice production in the 2026/27 season may decrease by 1.9%, to 553.1 million tonnes, mainly due to reduced producer profit margins and adverse weather conditions related to El Niño. However, global supply remains relatively abundant, with total projected supply reaching 774.3 million tonnes, consumption at 559 million tonnes, and ending inventory at 215.1 million tonnes. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is forecast at 38%.
Challenge for Vietnamese enterprises in the final months of the year is not just selling more rice, but selling to right market, right segment and with higher added value. Diversifying products such as glutinous rice, Japonica, T25 and other high-quality rice varieties can open up more opportunities, instead of relying too heavily on common white rice. Simultaneously, enterprises need to proactively secure capital and raw material sources to take advantage of increased demand.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn