Increased export volume, decreased value
According to data from Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in August 2026, Vietnam is estimated to export 123,800 tonnes of coffee, worth US$545.6 million. In the first eight months of the year, coffee export reached approximately 1.3 million tonnes, valued at US$6 billion, an increase of 13.1% in volume but a decrease of 9.1% in value compared to the same period in 2025.
Average export price of coffee in the first eight months is estimated at US$4,538/tonne, a decrease of 19.7% compared to the same period last year. This development shows that despite increase in coffee export volume, decrease in price is creating significant pressure on the industry's export value. Regarding markets, Germany, Italy and Japan continue to be Vietnam's three largest coffee consuming markets, with market shares of 13.2%, 8.2% and 7.1% respectively.
According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), increase in coffee export but decrease in export value is mainly due to the decline in world coffee prices. Over the past three years, high coffee prices have encouraged farmers in many countries to expand investment, acreage and production. Therefore, global supply tends to increase.
A report from US Department of Agriculture forecasts total global coffee supply for the 2026/2027 crop year at approximately 189 million 60kg bags, while consumption demand is around 179 million bags. Thus, the projected supply is about 10 million bags higher than demand.
Meanwhile, coffee prices on London exchange for Robusta and New York exchange for Arabica are still influenced by financial investors and many other factors. Some weather factors may support prices but prospect of a strong rebound in coffee prices is considered low.
Deep processing and EUDR open avenues for increasing value
In context of declining export prices, promoting deep processing is considered one of the important directions to improve coffee export turnover in the coming time. Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai said that currently, processed coffee accounts for only about 8.2-8.3% of total coffee volume but contributes up to 17.5% of total turnover. This shows that there is still great potential to increase export value through processed products. In recent years, Vietnamese businesses have increased investment in instant coffee, roasted and ground coffee, and blends. Demand for these products has been recorded as increasing in many markets, including China.
According to Mr. Hai, many Vietnamese instant and roasted coffee processing businesses have export orders to China until December 2026. Some businesses are even unable to meet the demand for processed coffee from Chinese traders.
Given market demand, enterprises are continuing to invest in processing plants, focusing on high value-added products. Businesses that already have processing lines are also tending to expand their production scale. Along with deep processing, meeting requirements for sustainable development and traceability are becoming crucial factors for coffee exports.
Based on the company's experience, in an interview with a reporter from the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Le Duc Huy, Chairman of Board of Directors of Simexco Dak Lak Company, stated that for a coffee crop to be truly sustainable, responsibility does not rest solely with the farmers but requires participation of entire chain, from growers, cooperatives, production enterprises, exporters to partners in supply chain.
Simexco Dak Lak currently connects approximately 65,000 farmers. According to Mr. Huy, cooperative relationship between farmers, producers, cooperatives, exporters, importers, roasters and consumers plays a crucial role in forming a sustainable coffee value chain.
One of requirements that businesses are proactively adapting to is the European Union's Regulation on Deforestation (EUDR). Simexco Dak Lak has collaborated with Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and its partners to develop an action plan, gradually improving raw material area management system and traceability. In April 2024, the company became the first to be certified as compliant with EU's 4C-EUDR standard for preventing deforestation.
According to VICOFA, from now until the end of 2026, Vietnam needs to focus on exporting green coffee beans that meet EUDR criteria, given low level of compliance in some other producing countries. The EUDR will officially apply from December 30, 2026, except for small and micro-enterprises as outlined in the document. In addition, the coffee industry needs to develop specialty and organic coffee lines to meet the demands of the high-end segment in Europe.
In long term, Mr. Le Duc Huy believes that the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to shift its focus from increasing production and productivity to improving quality, responsibility, and brand building. In the short term, strengthening links between producers and export businesses is also important to stabilize supply. "Harvest developments in Brazil and production in Indonesia, along with increasing demand for Robusta, could create more room for growth for Vietnamese coffee as we prepare for the 2026/2027 crop year, with harvesting starting in October 2026", Mr. Le Duc Huy stated.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn