Export prices recover, market remains volatile
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam's rice exports are estimated at 6.03 million tonnes, worth nearly US$2.91 billion, a decrease of 5% in volume and 10.7% in value compared to the same period last year. Average export price of rice is estimated at US$481.5/tonne, a decrease of 5.9%. However, market has shown positive signs. In July 2026 alone, average export price reached US$511/tonne, an increase of 5.8% compared to the same period last year. This is the first time this year that average export price has increased compared to the same period last year, creating expectations for export activities in remaining months of the year.
On domestic market, prices of some rice varieties decreased slightly or remained stable last week. According to updates from the An Giang Department of Agriculture and Environment, fresh OM 18 and Dai Thom 8 rice ranged from 6,600-6,700 VND/kg; OM 5451 was around 6,500-6,600 VND/kg. Price of raw rice remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, Vietnamese 5% broken rice for export traded around 438-442 USD/tonne.
According to Vietnam Food Association, by August 15, 2026, Vietnam is estimated to export 5.726 million tonnes of rice. Total export for the year are projected at approximately 7.738 million tonnes, meaning an additional 2 million tonnes need to be exported from mid-August to the end of the year.
Ministry of Agriculture and Environment forecasts that total value of rice exports in 2026 could reach approximately US$3.94 billion, a decrease of about 4% compared to 2025. Main reason is low export price level in early months of the year. However, price recovery from July may contribute to improving export figures in remaining months.
Global market is also showing some supporting factors. Global rice supply-demand balance for the 2026/2027 crop year is projected to shift to a deficit, while world rice trade continues to remain at a high level. According to forecasts, the Philippines – a major rice importer for Vietnam – continues to have import demand for stockpiling. China is also increasing its import demand, especially for broken rice for animal feed industry. Several African markets continue to offer opportunities for exporting countries.
However, opportunities always come with challenges. The Philippines is considering safeguard measures against imported rice, while Indonesia has no plans to import in 2026 due to high domestic supply and reserves.
In some African markets, Vietnamese rice also faces fierce competition from lower-priced products from India and Pakistan. Furthermore, high costs of fertilizers, transportation and energy affect production efficiency and the competitiveness of the supply chain. Risk of El Nino, drought and saltwater intrusion in coming period also necessitates more proactive planning in production organization, cropping schedules and crop varieties.
Not just selling more, but selling at higher value.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, agricultural expert Hoang Trong Thuy stated that one of great achievements of Vietnam's rice industry is that rice has become foundation of national food security, creating livelihoods for tens of millions of farmers and becoming one of key agricultural products paving the way for Vietnam's integration into international economy. However, the goal in new phase cannot stop at just producing more and exporting more.
According to Mr. Hoang Trong Thuy, Vietnamese rice needs to carry more value in terms of quality, brand, production area, standards, technology and green factors. This is a shift from thinking of a "commodity rice" to "value-added rice." To achieve this goal, rice industry needs to be reorganized to enhance linkage capacity between farmers, cooperatives and businesses. Small-scale producers can only create significant economic capacity when participating in linked and cooperative chains.
Accordingly, issues such as market data and forecasts, technical standards and barriers, raw material development, capital and insurance, logistics infrastructure, branding, trade promotion and coordination mechanisms need to be placed within an overall strategy. “The quality and brand of rice are not created at border crossings or milling facilities, but are determined right in the fields,” Mr. Hoang Trong Thuy emphasized.
Therefore, reorganizing production into a chain, with linked contracts, market data and clear responsibility for quality are considered crucial conditions for increasing the value of rice. According to expert Hoang Trong Thuy's orientation, by 2030, Vietnamese rice cultivation needs to shift from an “export food crop” to developing a “rice-based economic sector.” Further, by 2045, goal is not only to maintain large production volumes but also to build branded products capable of creating high value and gradually increasing pricing power in the market.
From a business perspective, Mr. Pham Hoang Lam, Chairman of Lam Rice Group Inc., believes that rice industry has long been judged by its production volume and export value. However, in context of increasingly fierce competition, what needs to be considered is not just how many millions of tons of rice Vietnam exports, but more importantly, how much values each ton of rice bring. “If Vietnamese rice continues to sell at lower prices than leading brands, farmers still face many risks from fluctuating rice prices and businesses mainly compete on price, then rice industry has not yet developed to its full potential”, Mr. Pham Hoang Lam stated.
According to Mr. Pham Hoang Lam, solutions such as expanding markets, removing obstacles in major markets, investing in storage systems, improving access to credit and building a national rice brand are all necessary. However, more importantly, a change in development mindset is needed. Farmers should not only sell paddy rice, businesses should not only sell rice and Vietnam should not only sell production volume. Value of rice needs to be built from rice varieties, raw material areas, production technology, quality standards and branding. Above all, it's about trust of international consumers in the product.
In that value chain, farmers are creators of product, enterprises play role of organizing market and creating value and the State plays role of improving development environment and enhancing the nation's position. When these three pillars are effectively connected, Vietnamese rice can compete based on quality, reputation and brand, instead of primarily relying on price advantages.
Decline in rice exports in the first eight months of the year shows that the industry is still clearly affected by price fluctuations and import policies of various markets. However, export rice prices began to improve from July, along with changes in supply and demand in global market, creating more room for exports in the remaining months of the year. From this development, challenge for the rice industry is not only to find ways to increase export volume, but more importantly, to improve efficiency and value of each ton of rice. This is also a time for the industry to shift strongly from a mindset focused on quantity to one that emphasizes quality, added value and branding, thereby raising position of Vietnamese rice in international market.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn