According to the latest report from Vietnam Food Association, Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), weighted average price of global white rice exports, ended the first week of August 2026 at US$434/tonne, down US$2/tonne from previous week, but up US$1/tonne from the previous month and US$5/tonne from the same period in 2025.
Global rice market is experiencing a mixed impact from abundant supply and weather risks. Increasing intensity of El Niño is causing lower-than-normal rainfall in many areas of Asia, threatening rice production in India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Furthermore, rising costs of fertilizers, fuel and irrigation could impact farmers' planting decisions, thereby affecting yields in future seasons. Global rice inventories are currently near record levels, expected to create a buffer to limit the risk of sharp price increases in the short term.
However, if adverse weather persists or countries implement trade restrictions, international supply could tighten, increasing inflationary pressure on food and posing food security risks to importing countries.
In Indonesia, rice production for the 2026/27 crop year is projected to decrease slightly due to an early, prolonged and drier dry season influenced by El Niño. Water shortages have led some farmers to switch to corn cultivation or leave land fallow. Indonesian rice consumption is expected to remain at 36.2 million tonnes, while imports may increase to 500,000 tonnes, compared to 150,000 tonnes the previous year. Ending stocks are projected to decrease from 4 million tonnes to 2.6 million tonnes.
To stabilize supply and prices, Indonesian government plans to strengthen food security measures such as improving irrigation systems, expanding irrigated land, cloud seeding to induce rain and increasing rice import. From August 2026, Indonesia will distribute 997,200 tonnes of rice to more than 33 million low-income households in a 5-month program. Rice will be sourced from Bulog's reserves, with a total cost of approximately 17.25 trillion rupiah, equivalent to about 954 million USD.
In India, price of 5% broken white rice was recorded at around 363 USD/tonne, down 2 USD/tonne from the previous week. Market is relatively quiet as supply recovers. In the first six months of 2026, India's rice exports are estimated at 12.27 million tonnes, an increase of approximately 5% compared to the same period last year.
In Thailand, price of 5% broken white rice is around US$455/tonne, down US$2/tonne from the previous week and down US$25/tonne from the previous month. Slow demand and a strong baht are putting pressure on export prices.
Pakistan recorded price of 5% broken white rice at around US$401/tonne, down US$11/tonne from the previous week. Trading was generally quiet due to limited old crop supply and slow international demand. However, prices remained high due to increased domestic procurement costs.
In Vietnam, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first seven months of 2026, rice export reached approximately 5.5 million tons, valued at US$2.64 billion, an increase of 0.5% in volume but a decrease of 6.7% in value compared to the same period in 2025. Average export price of rice in the first seven months was estimated at US$476.6/tonne, a decrease of 7.1% compared to the same period last year. The Philippines continues to be Vietnam's largest rice consumer market, accounting for 44.7% of market share.
Industry experts believe that, in context of global market being affected by extreme weather, demand and trade policies and supply developments in major producing countries, these will continue to be important factors influencing international rice prices and Vietnam's export activities in the coming months.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn