AsemconnectVietnam - For investors, 2026 is the time to position themselves, while 2027 will be the time to verify. The success of the next phase will be determined not by announced targets, but by the ability to translate reforms into growth and actual capital flows.

Full year GDP growth is expected to reach 8.5-9%
Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to reach 8.5-9.0% in 2026, inflation will be kept around 4.5%, and pressure on the VND exchange rate will remain under control. This scenario assumes that exports are partially converted, public investment disbursement, while not uniform, is gradually improving, FDI flows remain stable, and there are no major external shocks.
In the optimistic scenario, stronger import-to-export conversion in the third quarter of the year, accelerated disbursement, recovery in deposits, narrowing trade deficit, stable reserves, and cooling inflation create room for the State Bank to provide support at the end of the year.
In the less optimistic scenario, imports fail to convert into exports, capital gaps widen, reserves are under pressure, inflation persists, exchange rate pressure increases, and growth slides to low levels. Triggering factors include a stronger USD, energy shocks, weakening exports, slow land clearance, and low public investment disbursement.
In the second half of 2026, key indicators to monitor include the degree of export conversion in Q3, especially in the electronics and machinery sectors; monthly trade balance developments; trends in foreign exchange reserves and the difference between the free market exchange rate and the official exchange rate; and the budget's periodic foreign currency needs around debt repayment periods.
The gap between credit growth and deposits, as well as the trajectory of deposit growth; disbursement progress by ministry, sector, and locality; core inflation and pressure from state-managed price groups; decrees guiding the implementation of the Land Law; and milestones related to capital market development, especially new developments related to the free float ratio of shares, demand from institutional investors, and the progress of divestment in state-owned enterprises.
Aggregating this data will help clarify the sustainability of the current growth momentum. More importantly, it will show whether the emerging pressures are merely short-term factors affecting exchange rates and interest rates, or are signs of structural difficulties that could impact growth in the coming years.
3 most promising groups
The VN-Index closed June at 1,860 points (+4.23% year-to-date), while market capitalization reached VND 10,573 trillion (+6.0%). The number of individual investor accounts exceeded 13.16 million at the end of May, a 10.8% increase compared to the end of 2025.
For investors in emerging markets, the story of Vietnam is shifting from the "reopening and high growth" phase to the "capacity building and implementation" phase. Opportunities lie in the ability to position themselves early, before reforms transform latent value into investable opportunities.
Conversely, risks are concentrated in capital sources, implementation capacity, and exchange rate pressures.
Investment implications can be summarized into three main groups. The first group consists of sectors that directly benefit from the implementation process, including industrial parks, logistics, infrastructure contractors, and construction materials companies with strong pricing power.
The second group includes businesses that benefit from capital, such as banks with solid deposit bases, securities firms, asset management companies, and capital market infrastructure.
The third group includes businesses that benefit from the Value Up program, particularly those with improved free float ratios, reliably upgraded governance, more shareholder-friendly capital policies, potential for state divestment, and a higher level of involvement in passive capital flows.
The most worrying scenario is the confluence of adverse factors both domestically and internationally. If exports weaken, public investment does not improve significantly, and exchange rate pressures return, growth rates could be lower than currently expected.
Nevertheless, macroeconomic fundamentals suggest that Vietnam does not yet face significant solvency risks or imbalances. Public debt remains relatively low, with the majority denominated in local currency, FDI inflows remain stable, and the exchange rate is managed to control volatility.
Therefore, the main risk is not a crisis, but rather a period of slower-than-expected growth, accompanied by higher policy costs and more limited operational space. This is perhaps the most realistic challenge Vietnam needs to overcome in the coming period. Vietnam's opportunities, therefore, remain structural.
Under short-term fluctuations, the key foundations of growth are gradually being strengthened.
For investors, 2026 will be the time to position themselves; 2027 will be the time to test. The success of the next phase will be determined not by the announced targets, but by the ability to translate reforms into actual growth and capital flows.
CK
Source: VITIC/vneconomy.vn