Global supply faces many risks
The world rice market is showing signs of a price increase again after months of adjustment. According to the latest report from Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Oryza White Rice Index (WRI) ended the last week of May 2026 at US$420/tonne, an increase of US$15/tonne compared to the previous month.
Main driving force stems from concerns about supply in 2026-2027 crop year as El Niño is predicted to return and severely impact key rice-producing regions in Asia. Many countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia face risk of drought, reduced rainfall and rising temperatures, directly affecting rice yields.
In addition to pressure from extreme weather, rice market also faces other uncertainties. China continues to tighten controls on rice imports from India, while the Philippines has reactivated El Niño response measures and warned that rice production could decrease by up to 700,000 tonnes if the drought worsens. In Thailand, the price of 5% broken rice has risen to approximately US$459/tonne, US$67/tonne higher than a month ago. Import demand from Asian and African countries is providing strong support to the market.
Furthermore, new requirements for sustainable development, emission reduction and traceability are increasingly impacting the global rice supply chain. A recent international study shows that greenhouse gas emissions from rice production have now reached approximately 1.1 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent per year, becoming one of the major sources of emissions in the agricultural sector. This has led many major importing markets such as the EU, Japan and developed countries to increasingly prioritize agricultural products that meet green criteria, have low emissions, and are transparent about their origin.
The high-end segment creates a new advantage for Vietnamese rice
In context of global rice market shifting strongly towards the high-value segment, Vietnamese rice continues to assert its competitive advantage thanks to its increasingly improved quality and ability to meet green standards. According to the VFA, from the beginning of May 2026 to the present, export price of Vietnamese rice has recovered significantly in the high-quality segment. Jasmine rice is being offered at $513-$517 per tonne, an increase of approximately $30 per ton compared to the previous month; fragrant rice with 5% broken grains reached $510-$520 per tonne, an increase of $25-$30 per tonne.
Notably, ST25 rice continues to maintain its position in the premium segment with an export price of around $1,200 per tonne, many times higher than regular white rice. This is clear evidence of the shift in the rice industry from competing on quantity to competing on quality and added value.
Not only ST25, but many other specialty rice varieties from Vietnam are conquering high-end markets. According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Tra My, General Director of PAN Group and Chairwoman of Board of Directors of Vinaseed, the company has exported rice shipments priced up to $1,300 per tonne, and some specialty purple rice products even reached $2,300 per tonne. Another significant milestone is the granting of the "Green, Low-Emission Vietnamese Rice" trademark to Vinarice by the Vietnam Rice Industry Association. For the first time, the Vietnamese rice industry has an official identification system for low-emission rice products, creating a foundation for accessing markets with high demands for sustainable development.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Tra My, in context of the world moving towards net zero emissions, consumers in markets such as the EU, the US, the UK and Australia are increasingly prioritizing products that are both high-quality and environmentally friendly. This is considered a "green passport" helping Vietnamese rice expand its presence in high-end markets.
Currently, about 89% of Vietnam's rice exports are high-quality rice; of which fragrant and specialty rice account for 60-70%. Products such as ST24, ST25 and Japonica are gradually increasing their market share in demanding markets such as the EU, the US, and Japan. Speaking with a reporter from the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of Vietnam Food Association (VFA), said that the demand for high-quality rice worldwide is increasing rapidly, but domestic supply is still insufficient to meet export needs. Therefore, the industry needs to continue expanding the area for producing fragrant rice, specialty rice, and especially low-emission rice to take advantage of new consumer trends.
More than a year after the first shipment of "Green, Low-Emission Vietnamese Rice" was exported to Japan, approximately 70,000 tonnes of the product have been consumed in various markets. This result shows significant growth potential for rice varieties that simultaneously meet requirements for quality, food safety and environmental protection.
In addition, policies supporting development of high-quality rice production continue to be improved. Regulations on certification of fragrant rice for export to EU under EVFTA and UKVFTA, along with programs to develop high-quality raw material areas, are creating further impetus for businesses and farmers to invest in sustainable development. In the Mekong Delta, the 2026 Summer-Autumn crop is progressing smoothly, with over 770,000 hectares already planted, reaching approximately 62% of the plan. This is an important basis for ensuring supply for export in the remaining months of the year.
Experts believe that if El Niño returns and reduces supply in many major producing countries as predicted, opportunities for Vietnamese rice will become even clearer. However, competitive advantage in the coming period will not lie in production volume but in the ability to stably supply high-quality, low-emission rice varieties that are traceable and meet the sustainability standards of the international market. This is also the path to increasing export value and building a national brand for Vietnamese rice.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn