The decline reflects growing pressure from international markets, where coffee futures continued to weaken amid expectations of improved global supply. Market participants are increasingly focused on production prospects in major coffee-producing countries, particularly Brazil, whose harvest outlook has shown positive signs in recent weeks.
As domestic prices continue to decline, many farmers and traders are choosing to hold back sales in anticipation of a market recovery. However, industry experts warn that prolonged stockpiling carries significant risks. Rather than rushing to sell all available inventories or withholding supplies indefinitely, producers are advised to closely monitor market developments and adopt a phased selling strategy to maintain cash flow while reducing exposure to price volatility.
Today's trading session marked one of the steepest declines since the beginning of the month. Domestic coffee prices fell by between 1,200 and 1,400 dong per kilogram, while coffee futures on international exchanges dropped by more than 1.5%. The downturn has placed considerable pressure on procurement prices across Vietnam's major coffee-growing regions.
According to market analysts, the current decline is being driven by a combination of factors rather than supply alone. Increased speculative activity, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, favorable crop prospects in Brazil, and cautious sentiment among global investors have all contributed to downward pressure on prices.
When investment funds simultaneously take profits or reduce their exposure to commodity markets, coffee prices can decline rapidly even when physical supply conditions remain relatively unchanged. As a result, short-term price movements are often influenced as much by financial market dynamics as by underlying supply and demand fundamentals.
At the same time, encouraging signs from Brazil's ongoing harvest and expectations of improved global coffee availability have reduced the attractiveness of coffee as a speculative asset. These developments have prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance, adding further pressure to prices in the near term.
Vietnam's coffee exports slow after strong start to the year
Vietnam's coffee exports showed signs of slowing in April 2026 after a robust performance during the first quarter. The moderation was attributed to lower international coffee prices and softer import demand from several major markets.
According to data from Vietnam Customs, the country exported nearly 190,000 tonnes of coffee in April, generating close to US$823 million in export revenue. Compared with the same month last year, export volume increased by 9.2%, while export value declined by 17.9%.
During the first four months of 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 782,000 tonnes of coffee worth US$3.58 billion. Export volume rose by 11.7% year-on-year, but export earnings fell by 9.8%, reflecting the impact of lower international prices.
Although export performance remained positive in terms of volume, declining prices reduced overall export revenue. The average export price during the January-April period was estimated at US$4,575 per tonne, down 19.4% from the corresponding period in 2025.
The European Union remained Vietnam's largest coffee market, with Germany, Italy and Belgium continuing to account for a substantial share of imports. The strong performance in these markets indicates that Vietnamese coffee has maintained its competitiveness and stable position within the European market despite increased competition from other producing countries.
Meanwhile, coffee exports to China recorded strong growth in both volume and value, reflecting rising demand in one of Asia's fastest-growing consumer markets. Shipments to the United States also increased at a solid pace, suggesting that import demand remained resilient despite broader economic uncertainties.
Overall, Vietnam's coffee export structure continues to be concentrated in large and stable consumer markets, providing a relatively solid foundation for the sector amid ongoing fluctuations in global commodity markets.
Industry experts believe that, as green coffee bean prices remain under pressure, expanding exports of high-quality and value-added coffee products will be essential to offset declining export earnings. Exporters are encouraged to increase shipments of premium coffee, certified sustainable coffee and environmentally friendly products in order to strengthen competitiveness in high-end markets and capture greater value throughout the supply chain.
Source: Asemconnectvietnam/Vitic