Raw IR504 rice, one of the country's benchmark export-oriented varieties, traded at 8,400-8,550 dong per kg by the end of May, up from 7,600-7,700 dong per kg in January. The increase reflected a gradual shift from abundant early-year supplies toward tighter availability as the Winter-Spring harvest approached its final stages.
During the first quarter, ample grain supplies from the Mekong Delta helped keep domestic prices relatively stable despite active export demand. However, market conditions changed from late March onward as inventories held by farmers and traders began to decline while procurement demand remained firm.
Processed IR504 rice also recorded a notable increase. After remaining largely stable at around 7,500-7,700 dong per kg during the first four months of the year, prices rose sharply to approximately 10,750-10,900 dong per kg by late May, supported by stronger export activity and improving sentiment in international markets.
The domestic uptrend was broadly consistent with developments in Vietnam's export market. Prices for Vietnam's benchmark 5% broken rice remained mostly within a range of $355-$365 per tonne from late 2024 through the first quarter of 2026. Since late March, however, export quotations have risen steadily, reaching approximately $412.5 per tonne by the end of May.
By-products show mixed performance
Rice by-products displayed mixed price movements during the period. Dry broken rice prices remained relatively stable during the first months of the year, fluctuating around 7,500-7,700 dong per kg before easing slightly to 7,350-7,650 dong per kg at the end of May.
Dry rice bran followed a different trajectory. Prices climbed from 6,500-6,700 dong per kg in January to around 7,900-8,100 dong per kg in March, supported by stronger demand from the livestock feed industry. The market subsequently weakened during April and May as by-product supplies increased and feed demand moderated, pulling prices back to approximately 6,450-6,700 dong per kg.
Supply conditions tighten toward the end of the harvest season
Rice supply remained comfortable during the first quarter as harvesting activities across the Mekong Delta progressed smoothly.
Large volumes of marketable paddy entering the supply chain helped stabilize domestic prices despite active purchases by exporters. However, the supply outlook became tighter during the second quarter as the Winter-Spring crop neared completion while the Summer-Autumn harvest had only begun in selected areas.
In key producing provinces including An Giang, Dong Thap, Can Tho and Vinh Long, market participants reported declining inventories among farmers. Competition for high-quality paddy intensified as exporters and traders sought to secure supplies for ongoing contracts.
Holding-back sales in anticipation of higher prices also reduced market liquidity, further contributing to upward pressure on both domestic and export quotations.
Export demand remained the key market driver
Export demand continued to provide the primary source of support for the Vietnamese rice market during the first five months of 2026.
Procurement activities by exporters remained active as companies fulfilled contracts across Asia, Africa and other traditional destinations. The recovery in international rice prices from late March further encouraged buying interest and supported domestic market sentiment.
Although trading activity slowed somewhat in May due to tighter supplies and cautious behavior among sellers and traders, overall demand remained strong enough to maintain elevated price levels.
Rice exports declined in value despite resilient demand
According to calculations based on data released by Vietnam Customs on May 12, Vietnam exported 3.37 million tonnes of rice worth $1.58 billion during the first four months of 2026.
Export volume declined 1.59% from a year earlier, while export value fell 10.49%, reflecting lower average export prices compared with the same period of 2025. Average export prices stood at approximately $468 per tonne.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) remained Vietnam's largest export destination group, accounting for 2.51 million tonnes worth $1.13 billion. Shipments to RCEP markets increased 20.37% in volume and 8.38% in value year-on-year.
Southeast Asia continued to dominate Vietnam's export structure, importing 1.93 million tonnes valued at $843 million during the January-April period.
Philippines remains Vietnam's largest rice buyer
The Philippines retained its position as Vietnam's largest rice export market, purchasing 1.69 million tonnes worth $740.5 million during the first four months of 2026. The market accounted for nearly 47% of Vietnam's total rice export volume and recorded annual growth of 13.62% in volume and 1.24% in value.
China ranked second, importing 562,882 tonnes worth $281 million. Shipments to China rose sharply, increasing 55.67% in volume and 53.82% in value from a year earlier.
Ghana remained the third-largest destination with imports of 233,063 tonnes valued at $118.1 million, although shipments declined significantly compared with the previous year.
Exports to Côte d'Ivoire also fell sharply, while Malaysia posted solid growth, importing 181,470 tonnes worth $73.4 million.
Several smaller markets recorded notable increases. Exports to Mozambique rose more than 37% by volume, while shipments to Saudi Arabia expanded nearly 55%. Iraq also registered a significant increase in imports from Vietnam.
In contrast, exports to Indonesia, Senegal, Turkey and Bangladesh recorded steep declines compared with the same period last year.
Outlook
The Vietnamese rice market entered the second quarter with stronger price momentum supported by tightening domestic supplies and recovering international quotations.
While export competition remains intense, particularly from India and Thailand, demand from major buyers such as the Philippines and China continues to underpin market fundamentals.
Market participants expect future price movements to depend largely on the pace of the Summer-Autumn harvest, developments in global rice prices and procurement activity from key importing countries.
Source: Asemconnectvietnam/Vitic