In January and February 2026, prices of IR504 raw rice increased from around 7,600–7,700 dong per kg to 7,800–7,900 dong per kg. The upward movement was supported by improved export demand and more active trading in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam’s main rice-producing region.

During March and April, prices continued to rise to approximately 8,000–8,100 dong per kg before stabilizing at that level. The stability reflected relatively abundant supply from the Winter–Spring crop, which offset continued export buying.

However, by the end of May 2026, IR504 raw rice prices rose further to 8,400–8,550 dong per kg. This increase was driven by tightening end-of-season supply, while procurement demand for export remained firm. The shift marked a transition from a stable phase earlier in the year to a clearer upward trend.

For finished IR504 rice, prices were largely stable during the first four months of the year, fluctuating around 7,500–7,700 dong per kg. By late May, however, prices surged sharply to approximately 10,750–10,900 dong per kg. This jump reflected stronger export demand and alignment with rising global rice prices.

The domestic trend was consistent with developments in Vietnam’s export market. From late 2024 through the end of the first quarter of 2026, export prices for 5% broken rice had remained relatively stable at around 355–365 USD per ton. From late March 2026, prices began to increase significantly, reaching about 412.5 USD per ton by the end of May, indicating a clear upward shift in global market conditions.

Rice by-products showed mixed movements during the period. Prices of dry broken rice remained relatively stable in the early months, fluctuating between 7,500 and 7,700 dong per kg, before easing slightly to around 7,350–7,650 dong per kg by the end of May.

In contrast, rice bran prices rose sharply during the first quarter, increasing from 6,500–6,700 dong per kg in January to approximately 7,900–8,100 dong per kg in March. The increase was driven by strong demand from the animal feed sector.

However, in April and by the end of May, bran prices declined to around 6,450–6,700 dong per kg as supply of by-products increased and demand softened. Overall, the by-product segment reflected both demand-driven increases and subsequent corrections as supply conditions improved.

Domestic rice supply remained generally abundant in the early months of 2026, supported by a favorable Winter–Spring harvest in the Mekong Delta. During the first quarter, large volumes of paddy entered the market, helping to stabilize prices despite steady export demand.

From late March into the second quarter, however, supply began to tighten as the Winter–Spring harvest neared completion, while the Summer–Autumn crop had only started early harvesting in some areas.

In key producing provinces such as An Giang, Dong Thap, Can Tho and Vinh Long, remaining paddy stocks among farmers declined significantly. As a result, trading activity slowed and competition for high-quality lots increased among traders.

At the same time, a portion of farmers and businesses adopted a holding strategy, anticipating further price increases. This behavior reduced the volume of rice circulating in the market, contributing to tighter supply conditions.

The combination of seasonal supply contraction and inventory holding supported the sharp rise in raw rice and export prices observed in May 2026.

Rice demand remained broadly positive during the first five months of 2026, particularly from export markets. Procurement activity by exporters in the Mekong Delta was relatively steady, supporting shipments to Asia, Africa and other traditional markets.

The recovery in global rice prices from late March further stimulated import demand, reinforcing domestic procurement activity. Export demand therefore remained a key pillar supporting domestic prices.

However, domestic trading in May became somewhat slower due to tightening supply and cautious sentiment among both sellers and traders. Reduced availability of paddy limited transaction volumes, while participants adopted a wait-and-see approach amid rising prices.

Overall, demand conditions remained supportive, helping maintain domestic rice prices at high levels despite short-term fluctuations in trading activity.

According to data released by Vietnam’s Customs authority on May 12, 2026, the country exported 3.37 million tons of rice in the first four months of 2026, generating 1.58 billion USD in revenue.

This represented a decline of 1.59% in volume and a sharper drop of 10.49% in value compared with the same period in 2025. The average export price was approximately 468 USD per ton, lower than a year earlier.

Despite the decline in overall export value, demand in several key markets remained robust, particularly in Asia.

The RCEP region continued to account for the largest share of Vietnam’s rice exports, totaling 2.51 million tons worth 1.13 billion USD, up 20.37% in volume and 8.38% in value year-on-year.

Within this group, Southeast Asia remained the dominant sub-region, importing 1.93 million tons valued at 843 million USD, up 12.84% in volume but down 1.3% in value.

The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest export market, importing 1.69 million tons worth 740.48 million USD, up 13.62% in volume and 1.24% in value, accounting for nearly 47% of total exports.

China ranked second with 562,882 tons valued at 280.96 million USD, recording strong growth of 55.67% in volume and 53.82% in value.

Ghana ranked third with 233,063 tons (118.13 million USD), although shipments declined significantly compared with the previous year.

Other notable markets included Malaysia, Mozambique and Saudi Arabia, all of which recorded varying degrees of growth.

In contrast, exports to several markets declined sharply. Indonesia, Senegal, Turkey and Bangladesh all posted significant drops in both volume and value, reflecting changing demand patterns and increased competition.

Exports to CPTPP markets reached 242,443 tons (106.59 million USD), up 18.33% in volume but down 8.47% in value. Meanwhile, shipments to the EU under the EVFTA totaled 8,803 tons (6.72 million USD), declining in both volume and value.

Overall, Vietnam’s domestic rice market in the first five months of 2026 transitioned from a state of relative abundance and price stability to a phase of tightening supply and rising prices toward the end of the Winter–Spring crop.

While export volumes declined slightly and export value fell more significantly due to lower average prices earlier in the year, demand from key markets remained resilient. The recovery in global prices from late March provided additional support to domestic prices.

Looking ahead, the interplay between seasonal supply cycles, export demand and global price trends will continue to shape the domestic rice market. The upward momentum observed in May suggests that prices may remain firm in the near term, particularly if export demand continues to strengthen while supply remains constrained.

Source: Vitic