Export volume increases, but prices fall sharply
According to data from Customs Department, in April 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 189,894 tonnes of coffee, earning 822.5 million USD. In the first four months of the year, coffee export reached approximately 782,017 tonnes, an increase of 11.7% compared to the same period last year.
However, contrary to increase in production, export value decreased by nearly 10%, to approximately US$3.57 billion. Main reason is sharp decline in world coffee prices compared to last year. In the first four months of 2026, average export price of Vietnamese coffee was only about US$4,555/tonne, a decrease of nearly 20% compared to the same period in 2025.
This development clearly reflects downward trend on international exchanges. Robusta coffee prices on London exchange fell from around US$4,100/tonne in January to around US$3,300-3,500/tonne in April. On average, in the first four months of the year, Robusta prices decreased by about 32% compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, Arabica prices on New York exchange also fell sharply, from 370 US cents/lb to around 279-305 US cents/lb in April, a decrease of about 14% compared to the same period last year.
In domestic market, price of bulk green coffee beans has also continuously declined. While Robusta prices were above 100,000 VND/kg at the beginning of the year, they now fluctuate around 85,500-89,200 VND/kg. Domestic Arabica prices have also decreased by about 24% compared to the same period in 2025.
Despite price drop, trading on market remains quite slow. Many farmers continue to hold onto their stock in the hope of price recovery, meaning domestic supply is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. To ensure timely delivery of signed contracts, some export businesses have begun importing raw materials from Brazil and Indonesia.
Speaking with a reporter from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), stated that the biggest reason for sharp drop in coffee prices is increasingly abundant global supply. 2025/2026 global coffee crop is projected to reach a record high of approximately 180 million bags, an increase of nearly 8 million bags compared to the previous crop. This increase is mainly driven by Robusta production in Brazil. Brazil alone is projected to produce around 65.1 million bags, and possibly even up to 75 million bags if weather conditions are favorable.
While supply has increased significantly, global coffee demand has remained relatively stable. According to VICOFA statistics, world coffee consumption in recent crop years has fluctuated around 172-176 million bags per year. “Conflicts in the Middle East may cause a slight price increase in the short term, but overall trend remains downward compared to 2025”, Mr. Do Ha Nam commented.
VICOFA forecasts that domestic coffee prices may remain around 80,000 VND/kg until mid-2026 and could potentially fall further in the following months. Besides pressure from world prices, coffee industry also faces other risks such as increased logistics costs, persistently high fertilizer prices and risk of losses on the futures market if businesses lock in prices at the wrong time.
Notably, according to a long-standing pattern, Vietnam's coffee export in the last six months of the year are usually lower than in the first half. Therefore, achieving "double-digit" export growth this year is considered quite difficult, especially in terms of value.
Increasing deep processing to maintain export value
Despite market fluctuations, Vietnam's coffee export structure is showing positive signs. In the first four months of 2026, export of roasted, instant and blended coffee reached approximately 65,100 tonnes, earning about US$600 million, a 17% increase in value compared to the same period last year. If converted according to standards of International Coffee Organization (ICO), amount of processed coffee exported is equivalent to about 106,000 tonnes of raw coffee beans, accounting for 16% of total export value of the entire industry.
According to VICOFA, in context of sharply falling green coffee bean prices, promoting export of deeply processed coffee will be an important solution to compensate for the decline in export value. The association also recommends that businesses increase exports of high-quality coffee, green and sustainable certified coffee to enhance competitiveness in high-end markets.
In addition, VICOFA proposes promoting trade in potential markets such as China, Russia, South Korea, Algeria and the Nordic markets for specialty and organic coffee. Simultaneously, it suggests strengthening the provision of market information to businesses and producers.
According to experts, in context of global coffee market entering a new competitive cycle, growth potential of the industry no longer lies in production volume but depends more on quality, deep processing and brand building. This will also be a crucial direction for the Vietnamese coffee industry to maintain its leading export position amidst volatile world prices.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn