The decline was driven by a strong increase in supply due to aggressive restocking, weaker domestic demand, pressure from low-priced imported pork, as well as natural disasters and disease outbreaks that prompted distress selling.

Chart: Live hog price movements from early 2024 to the end of December 2025
Unit: Thousand VND/kg

 

Source: Compiled from Anova Feed

According to the Department of Livestock Production and Animal Health at its regular press briefing in December 2025, hog farming has gradually recovered following the impact of ASF, though the pace remains slow due to storms, flooding, and cautious sentiment toward restocking. Poultry farming, by contrast, recorded fairly strong growth thanks to relatively favorable production conditions, effective disease control, no major outbreaks, and stable selling prices.
As of the end of November 2025, the national hog herd was estimated to be up 0.3% year on year, while the poultry flock increased by 2.8%.

The Department of Livestock Production and Animal Health also estimated that during the Tet period alone, the sector would supply around 500,000 tonnes of pork to the market. Meanwhile, according to the Hanoi Department of Industry and Trade, demand in Hanoi during the year-end period and the upcoming Lunar New Year is estimated at 60,000 tonnes. Together with other localities nationwide, Hanoi has prepared supply early to meet market demand.

Citing Vietnam Customs data, the Import–Export Department reported that Vietnam spent USD358 million to import more than 159,000 tonnes of chilled or frozen pork in the first 10 months of 2025. Compared with the same period last year, both volume and value nearly doubled. The average import price was about USD2,240/tonne, down slightly by 3% year on year. Imports mainly came from Russia (around 51% share), followed by Brazil (30%). For full-year 2025, pork imports are estimated at around 200,000 tonnes, more than twice the level of 2024 (about 94,000 tonnes).

Also citing Vietnam Customs data, the Import–Export Department noted that exports of fresh, chilled, or frozen pork in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 7,020 tonnes, worth USD54.5 million, down 11% in volume but up 13% in value year on year.
Hong Kong remained the main market, with Vietnam’s exports consisting primarily of frozen suckling pigs and frozen whole carcasses. The average export price was about USD7,785/tonne.

According to experts, after a prolonged sharp decline from mid-November 2025, live hog prices rebounded on stronger year-end consumption, which typically rises from December through the pre-Tet period. In the coming period, live hog and retail pork prices are forecast to continue edging up. Supply is expected to tighten, while pork imports into Vietnam are projected to increase further from now into 2026.

T.Huong

Source: Vitic