Coffee leads growth, surpassing all forecasts
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, three key commodities including coffee, pepper and vegetables all set all-time high export records in the first 10 months of 2025. Coffee alone continues to lead growth with an unprecedented increase.
Specifically, in October 2025, coffee exports reached 71,900 tonnes, worth 403.5 million USD; cumulative 10 months reached 1.3 million tons, with a turnover of 7.41 billion USD, the highest level in history, up 61.8% in value. Average export price reached 5,653 USD/tonne, up 42.5%. Some markets made strong breakthroughs, especially Mexico with a value increase of up to 34.7 times.
Speaking to a reporter from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Vice President of Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said that this year's coffee exports could exceed the 8 billion USD mark, thanks to three factors: improving quality, increasing proportion of processed products and expanding the market in a strategic direction.
Mr. Hiep analyzed that before 2020, low coffee prices caused many farmers to switch to growing other crops, reducing supply. Meanwhile, businesses focused on building sustainable production chains and improving quality. When supply decreased but demand increased, coffee prices rebounded strongly. Along with that, free trade agreements, especially with the EU, forced businesses and farmers to comply with higher standards on quality and emissions. Although strict, these barriers have helped coffee industry "transform" in a modern direction, enhancing its reputation in international market.
"By 2025, coffee exports will reach 8 billion USD, a figure that we previously set a target for 2030. This result comes from the formation of a responsible ecosystem, from production to processing, linked to world market demand," Mr. Hiep emphasized.
Not only coffee, pepper also surpassed the record in export value. In October 2025, exports reached 19,800 tonnes, worth 131.8 million USD; cumulative 10 months reached 206,300 tonnes and 1.4 billion USD, although output decreased, value increased by 25.8%, the highest level ever. Average export price reached 6,774 USD/tonne, up 33.7%. Exports to the UK increased by nearly 97%, leading the group of major markets. International Pepper Association (IPC) forecasts that world pepper prices will continue to increase, creating a basis for Vietnam to aim for the 1.5 billion USD mark this year. Vegetables and fruits are the third group of goods to set a new record, when exports in October reached 961 million USD; cumulative 10 months reached 7.09 billion USD, up 15.1% and the highest level in history of the industry. China continues to be the largest market with 62.9% market share; Exports to the United States increased by nearly 60%. Demand for tropical fruits, especially durian, mango, dragon fruit, etc., increased sharply, continuing to be main driving force bringing the fruit and vegetable industry to an unprecedented record level.
Also according to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in October 2025, cashew nut exports reached 69,700 tonnes, equivalent to 476.9 million USD. The cumulative 10 months reached 624,400 tonnes, with a turnover of 4.25 billion USD, up 18.6% in value. China, the United States and the Netherlands are the three largest markets. Exports to China increased by 54.1%; to the Netherlands increased by 21.6%; but to the United States decreased by 17.3% due to the new reciprocal tax policy.
Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Vice President of VINACAS, assessed that the cashew industry is under great pressure from changes in trade policies of both raw cashew exporting countries and cashew nut importing countries. To cope, Vietnamese enterprises need to maintain quality, ensure food safety, and expand the market.
Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut also said that the domestic cashew growing area is decreasing sharply due to competition with other crops. Therefore, it is necessary to have a policy to restore raw material areas, replant old cashews and develop new high-yield varieties.
Some large enterprises such as Long Son have invested in processing factories right in Africa, where there is the largest supply of raw cashews in the world, to proactively source raw materials and increase added value.
Bright year-end prospects and the target of exceeding 70 billion USD
Vietnam has currently exported agricultural products to more than 190 countries and territories, affirming its position in the global food supply chain. According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien, if the last two months of the year reach about 12 billion USD, export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in 2025 could exceed 70 billion USD, a new record.
Experts believe that the outlook for the last two months of the year continues to be positive, especially for coffee, pepper, cashews, vegetables and seafood. International prices remain stable, and consumer demand in major markets is recovering. However, risks still exist, especially for rice due to competition from India, Thailand and Pakistan; along with fluctuations in logistics costs and exchange rates.
To maintain its position, experts recommend continuing to invest in processing technology, improving quality standards, expanding markets and diversifying products. This will be the direction to help Vietnamese agricultural products not only increase in quantity but also increase in value, making a sustainable breakthrough in the coming years.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn