According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee output in 2025 - 2026 crop year is expected to reach 178.7 million bags, an increase of 4.3 million bags compared to previous crop year and the highest level ever. Meanwhile, global consumption is forecast to reach 169.4 million bags, showing that supply will continue to slightly exceed demand.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is forecast to produce 65 million bags in the new crop year, up slightly by 300,000 bags from previous season. However, Arabica production is expected to fall by 2.8 million bags to 40.9 million due to drought and high temperatures in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states, while Conilon (Robusta) will increase by 3.1 million bags to a record 24.1 million bags due to favorable rains in Espirito Santo and Bahia. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.7 million bags.
In Colombia, the USDA forecasts a 700,000 bag drop to 12.5 million bags due to heavy rains and high cloudiness that disrupted flowering. Although weather conditions are favorable for rust, damage has been kept under control thanks to high rates of resistance. However, according to Colombian National Coffee Federation (FNC), 2024-2025 crop year reached 14.86 million bags, up 16.5% from the previous crop - the highest level in more than 30 years.
In Indonesia, coffee production in 2025-2026 crop year is forecast to reach 11.3 million bags, up 550,000 bags, of which Robusta accounts for the majority (9.8 million bags) thanks to favorable conditions in Southern Sumatra and Java. Arabica is also forecast to increase slightly to 1.5 million bags.
In Ethiopia, production is expected to reach 11.6 million bags, up 900,000 bags from the previous crop year. This increase is thanks to farmers converting more than half of the area to high-yielding varieties and promoting pruning measures to improve productivity.
In Vietnam, coffee output is expected to increase by about 10% in the 2025-2026 crop year, continuing to maintain positive growth momentum. Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said that there are three main factors supporting increased output: favorable weather, high prices and increased investment by farmers in garden care.
"Domestic coffee prices have remained high for more than two years, often above VND100,000/kg, at times exceeding VND130,000/kg. Currently, the price is still around VND115,000/kg, creating a strong motivation for growers to invest in replanting and better tree care," Mr. Hai shared.
Also according to the USDA, global green coffee exports in 2025-2026 crop year are expected to reach 122.3 million bags, an increase of 700,000 bags compared to the previous crop year. Of which, Colombia is forecast to decrease by 500,000 bags to 10.7 million bags due to a decline in output; Indonesia increases by 400,000 bags to 6.5 million bags; and Ethiopia increases by 800,000 bags to 7.8 million bags due to abundant supply.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn