AsemconnectVietnam - This is the general assessment made by experts from the World Bank (WB) in the Vietnam Economic Update Report on September 8.

Accordingly, the WB forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.6% in 2025, thanks to a breakthrough growth rate of 7.5% in the first half of the year.
According to the WB, Vietnam's GDP growth reached 7.5% in the first half of 2025, higher than 6.5% in the first half of 2024, thanks to a strong increase in exports as businesses increase export orders in the context of uncertainties about global trade policies.
According to the WB, the growth was achieved thanks to a 14.2% increase in exports in the first half of 2025, in which exports to the United States will break out at 28.3% in the face of the possibility of increased tariffs. Imports also increase to 16.0% in the first half of 2025 to meet increased orders during the export order boost period.
In addition, investment growth in comparable prices reaches 8.0%, compared to 6.7% in the first half of 2024, thanks to solid foreign investment and increased public investment disbursements. Final consumption increases 8.0% in the first half of 2025, compared to 5.8% in the first half of 2024, thanks to a pick-up in tourism.
However, according to the WB, the high export growth rate in the past is expected to slow down. The total merchandise exports increased from 9.2% in November of 2024 to 14.5% in the first half of 2025, peaking at 19.8% in April of 2025, when the US announced reciprocal tariffs before the suspension.
Specifically, the total exports to the US increased by 31.8% in June of 2025, with computers posting a record increase of 78.6%. However, trade growth is expected to slow in the coming months. New export orders have been falling steadily since November of 2024 and especially since April of 2025 due to trade policy uncertainty, especially in ASEAN countries since April of 2025.
This is an indication that the trade will probably return to normal in the second half of 2025 when new trade agreements are signed.
Not only that, even if new export orders show signs of improvement in July of 2025 after the Vietnam - US trade agreement was announced, they are still in the low range.
The above data showed that, as an export-oriented economy, Vietnam continues to be affected by the weakening global growth outlook and falling demand from major trading partners.
Challenging outlook
Global economic activity is forecast to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% and 2.4% in 2025-26, respectively (down by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the January of 2025 forecast).
This is due to weaker global trade growth and persistent geopolitical tensions. Growth in the United States and China, Vietnam’s largest trading partners, is expected to slow in the second half of 2025, further limiting external demand for Vietnamese products.
At the same time, increased policy uncertainty is also negatively affecting investor and consumer confidence. Export-oriented economies such as Vietnam are particularly vulnerable to such developments, which could impact growth.
After strong growth in the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s economy is expected to slow down in the remaining months of 2025 as overall export growth is expected to return to growth during periods of stability.
However, this outlook is highly dependent on further trade developments. Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 6.6% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026, before recovering to 6.5% in 2027, as global trade rebounds and Vietnam continues to be competitive in global value chains.
CK
Source: VITIC/haiquanonline.com.vn