Coffee prices break through 110,000 VND/kg
In the domestic market, if before May 2023, coffee prices only fluctuated around 40,000 VND/kg, from 2024 to now, prices have remained at a very high level, around 120,000 VND/kg.
After recording the historical peak price of the coffee industry in the past 47 years of 135,000 VND/kg twice on the afternoon of March 20, 2025 and the morning of March 6, 2025, coffee prices stagnated, went down and currently the average coffee price is around 109,600 VND/kg, the lowest in more than a month.
This decline is not only due to technical factors but also directly affected by the world supply and demand situation due to increased supply from Brazil and Indonesia when entering the harvest season and increasing inventories.
Specifically, according to the forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year will increase by 0.5% compared to the previous crop year, to 65 million bags; Vietnam's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year will increase by about 6.9% compared to the previous crop year, to 31 million bags; Honduras's 2025/26 crop year, the largest coffee producer in Central America, will increase by 5.1% to 5.8 million bags.
In addition, USDA forecasts Indonesia's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year, which is currently in harvest time, to reach a total of 11.25 million bags, up 5.14% compared to the previous crop year.
Of which, Robusta output will reach 9.8 million bags (up 5.38% compared to the previous crop year) and Arabica will reach 1.45 million bags (up 3.57% compared to the previous crop year). Robusta coffee inventories increased to an 8-month high on May 23, 2025, at 5,438 lots. Arabica coffee inventories were also recorded at the highest level in nearly 4 months, at 886,590 bags, also putting pressure on prices. With these factors, coffee prices may continue to decrease in the coming time.
Talking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said that the rather quiet trading market along with the increased supply of coffee inventories from Indonesia created pressure on world coffee prices and thereby had a reverse impact on domestic coffee prices.
In addition, the world's largest coffee producing country, Brazil, entered the harvest season in May with highly rated productivity. The area and output both exceeded initial expectations, further causing the market to oversupply, cooling down domestic coffee prices.
Although coffee prices have decreased, according to industry experts, coffee growers still earn quite good profits at this price. Demand in the world market is still high, so the decrease in coffee prices is only short-term.
Coffee exports may exceed the 6 billion USD mark
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the volume of coffee exports in May 2025 is estimated at 170 thousand tons with a value of 990.8 million USD, bringing the total volume and value of coffee exports in the first 5 months of 2025 to 835.9 thousand tons and 4.79 billion USD, up 0.9% in volume and 65.1% in value over the same period in 2024. The average export price of coffee in the first 5 months of 2025 is estimated at 5,726.2 USD/ton, up 63.7% over the same period in 2024.
Commenting on the coffee export situation in the coming time, speaking with reporters of Cong Thuong Newspaper, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, said that the sharp increase in coffee prices over the past 2 years has brought great benefits to the coffee industry. The coffee export target in 2025 could exceed 6 billion USD.
The result is due to the increasing rate of deeply processed coffee, especially instant coffee. Vietnam has also started producing specialty coffee with selling prices one and a half to twice as high as the world average. "Currently, about 10% of coffee output is processed deeply, with an average value of about 6,000 USD/ton, contributing to increasing export turnover," said Mr. Trinh Duc Minh.
Vietnamese coffee has come a long way, to date, the coffee growing area has reached more than 700,000 hectares. Despite achieving positive results in terms of selling prices and export turnover, in order to maintain and enhance its position, Dr. Le Quoc Doanh, former Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (now the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), said that the coffee industry must shift from production based on output to responsible production.
Sustainable production is not only the story of each garden, but also the entire value chain from input materials, cultivation, processing to traceability. The combination of farmers, businesses, scientists and the government is the key formula to create change.
"If we continue to maintain the current spirit of cooperation and responsibility, Vietnamese coffee will not only maintain its leading export position but can also rise to the top of the world in terms of quality and sustainability," said Dr. Le Quoc Doanh.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn