On the global market, coffee prices showed mixed movements. While Arabica prices dropped sharply due to strong speculative selling on the New York exchange, Robusta prices rebounded positively.
Domestic Coffee Prices Update:
Lam Dong: 130,300 VND/kg (Di Linh, Lam Ha, Bao Loc).
Dak Lak: 132,000 VND/kg (Cu M’gar), 131,900 VND/kg (Ea H’leo, Buon Ho).
Dak Nong: 132,000 VND/kg (Gia Nghia), 131,900 VND/kg (Dak R’lap).
Gia Lai: 132,000 VND/kg (Chu Prong), 131,900 VND/kg (Pleiku, La Grai).
Kon Tum: 131,900 VND/kg.
Global Coffee Market Trends:
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices:
March 2025 contract rose by $40/ton, reaching $5,738/ton.
May 2025 contract rose by $41/ton, reaching $5,721/ton.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices:
March 2025 contract fell by 0.75 cents/lb, to 419 cents/lb.
May 2025 contract fell by 2.15 cents/lb, to 405.25 cents/lb.
At one point, Arabica prices dropped below 392 cents/lb due to heavy speculative selling.
Market Outlook:
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Industrial and Trade Information Center (VITIC), the La Niña weather phenomenon in 2025 could replace El Niño, significantly affecting major coffee-growing regions in Brazil. The increased risk of frost could damage coffee trees, leading to the lowest production levels in three years for the 2025/26 crop.
While long-term forecasts indicate that coffee prices may decline by the end of 2025, there are still several factors supporting Arabica’s upward trend in the short and medium term:
Supply Concerns:
Brazil faces potential crop failure, with production expected to drop by 15%.
Colombia is experiencing market fluctuations due to a 25% tariff hike imposed by the U.S. on coffee imports. As the largest producer of washed Arabica, Colombia heavily relies on exports to the U.S., and the new tariffs could significantly impact the Arabica market.
Coffee exports
Vietnam exported 154,635 tonnes of coffee in January 2025, earning 799.5 million USD, according to statistics from the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association.
Of this total, green coffee exports reached 137,568 tonnes, generating 694.9 million USD, marking a 38.2% decline in volume, but an 8.8% increase in value compared to the same period last year.
Processed coffee exports amounted to 17,067 tonnes, bringing in 104.6 million USD, accounting for 11% of total volume and 13% of total export value.
In January, foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises contributed 21.8% of Vietnam’s total green coffee export volume and 22.4% of total export value for this segment.
In 2024, domestic enterprises exported nearly 1.35 million tonnes of coffee, generating a record-breaking 5.62 billion USD in revenue.
The average export price of coffee reached an all-time high of 4,178 USD per tonne, with prices soaring to 5,855 USD per tonne in November 2024. Meanwhile, domestic raw coffee prices peaked at 131,000 VND (5.2 USD) per kilogramme, yielding a net profit of over 90,000 VND per kilogram for farmers, after deducting costs.
For 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has set a coffee production target of 1.98 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year.
T.Huong
Source: Vitic