AsemconnectVietnam - According to Kinhtedothi, robusta coffee prices in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing area, have slightly decreased on Friday to 131,600 - 132,600 VND per kg compared to yesterday.

Domestic Coffee Prices
• Lâm Đồng: 131,600 VND/kg (Di Linh, Lâm Hà, Bảo Lộc).
• Đắk Lắk: 132,600 VND/kg (Cư M'gar); 132,500 VND/kg (Ea H'leo, Buôn Hồ).
• Đắk Nông: 126,000 VND/kg (Gia Nghĩa); 132,500 VND/kg (Đắk R'lấp).
• Gia Lai: 132,400 VND/kg (Chư Prông); 132,300 VND/kg (Pleiku, La Grai).
• Kon Tum: 132,300 VND/kg.
On the global market, Arabica continues its bullish trend, while Robusta sees a slight decline. Despite predictions of a major correction, Arabica on the New York exchange keeps setting record highs—the highest in over 50 years.
Global Coffee Prices
• Robusta (London):
o March 2025 contract: $5,794/ton (-$23).
o May 2025 contract: $5,788/ton (-$33).
• Arabica (New York):
o March 2025 contract: 438.9 cents/lb (+7.1 cents).
o May 2025 contract: 425.1 cents/lb (+4.9 cents).
Despite expectations of a correction, Arabica prices continue to reach new highs, while Robusta is showing signs of stabilization.
Factors Driving Coffee Price Increases
According to the Industrial and Trade Information Center (VITIC), several key factors have contributed to the rise in coffee prices:
- Supply Reduction: Brazil—the world's largest coffee exporter—is expected to see lower production in the 2024/25 season, pushing prices higher.
- Global Economic Uncertainty: Market fluctuations and trade policies, particularly from the U.S., have affected major coffee-producing nations such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
- Macroeconomic Factors: The anticipated La Niña weather phenomenon will replace El Niño, bringing much-needed rainfall but also increasing the risk of frost in Brazil. Supply and demand remain strong, driven by high consumption in key markets like the EU, the U.S., and emerging demand from China.
Despite record-high prices, Vietnamese coffee farmers remain cautious about selling. Nguyen Thi Chien, a coffee grower in Kon Tum, said that her family sold only one tonne at 115,000 USD per kilogramme, keeping the rest in storage in hopes of further gains. However, market volatility has left many farmers uncertain about the optimal time to sell.
From October 2024 to January 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports declined sharply in volume, but increased in value. In January alone, the country exported 137,568 tonnes of coffee, generating 694.93 million USD —a 38.2% drop in volume but an 8.8% rise in value year-on-year.
Director of Global Trade Link Co., Ltd., Nguyen Ngoc Luan, remains optimistic about the price outlook, citing concerns over crop failures and potential U.S. tariffs on South American goods, which could strengthen Vietnam’s competitive position in the global market.
However, Nguyen Huu Long of Vietnam Coffee Academy JSC raised concerns that domestic coffee prices remain 15,000 USD per kilogramme lower than those on the London exchange, suggesting potential price manipulation.
The soaring prices have also raised alarms over counterfeit coffee production. In late January, authorities in Gia Lai uncovered three facilities in Pleiku mixing unidentified chemicals into ground coffee. Similarly, Brazil’s Coffee Roasters Association (ABIC) issued a warning about adulterated coffee made from husks, leaves and other non-coffee substitutes.
Despite record-high prices, Vietnam’s coffee industry is unlikely to face an oversupply crisis, as land for coffee cultivation remains limited. Experts predict that strong prices will persist until July 2025, but warn farmers against excessive speculation to avoid financial risks.
T.Huong
Source: Vitic