According to preliminary statistics from General Department of Customs, in September 2024, Vietnam imported 843,823 tonnes of wheat, equivalent to 226.43 million USD, with an average price of 268.3 USD/tonne, a sharp increase of 212.9% in volume and 209% in value compared to August 2024 but the price decreased slightly by 1.2%. Compared to September 2023, it also increased by 274.4% in volume, 227.3% in value but decreased by 12.6% in price. In the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam's imported wheat volume reached over 4.55 million tonnes, equivalent to over 1.25 billion USD, an increase of 37.9% in volume and 8.6% in value compared to the first 9 months of 2023, with an average price of 275.5 USD/tonne, down 21.2%.
Wheat importing from the main market Brazil in the first 9 months of 2024 accounted for 25.8% of total volume and 23.4% of total wheat import turnover of Vietnam, reaching over 1.17 million tonnes, equivalent to 293.14 million USD, average price was 249.6 USD/tonne, a sharp increase of 348.9% in volume, an increase of 205.9% in turnover but a decrease of 31.9% in price compared to the first 9 months of 2023. In September 2024, no wheat was imported from this market. Following the main market Brazil is Ukrainian market, accounting for 24.7% of total volume and 23% of total turnover, reaching 1.13 million tonnes, equivalent to over 287.87 million USD, with an average price of 255.7 USD/tonne, a sharp increase of 1,266% in volume, an increase of 1,132% in turnover but a decrease of 9.8% in price compared to the first 9 months of 2023.
Next is Australian market, reaching 898,241 tonnes, equivalent to 276.68 million USD, with a price of 308 USD/tonne, accounting for 19.7% of the total volume and 22% of total wheat import turnover of the country, a sharp decrease of 63% in volume, a decrease of 66.8% in turnover and a decrease of 10.2% in price.
Wheat imports from the US market reached 378,254 tonnes, equivalent to 121.04 million USD, priced at 320 USD/tonne, up 43.9% in volume, up 17% in value but down 18.7% in price compared to the first 9 months of 2023.
International Grains Council (IGC) in its April report revised down about 1.1 million tonnes compared to March report for global wheat output in the 2024-2025 crop year to 797.7 million tonnes. With this output, it shows a modest growth of only 1.1% compared to the previous crop.
According to calculations, with current world population size, demand for wheat consumption is expected to be greater than 800 million tonnes. It is possible to foresee the risk of a deficit in the wheat supply-demand balance for 5 consecutive years. In addition, IGC also adjusted the end-of-season inventory for the 2023-2024 crop down by 3.6 million tonnes compared to March figure.
IGC forecasts consumption demand for 2024-2025 crop at about 802 million tonnes, thereby reducing end-of-season inventory for the 2024-2025 crop to about 259 million tonnes, about 4.9 million tonnes lower than the end-of-season inventory for the 2023-2024 crop. End-of-season inventory ratio for the 2024-2025 crop is about 32,3% of total consumption demand.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn