AsemconnectVietnam - Prices of domestic construction steel and hot rolled coil (HRC) are expected to recover significantly from the fourth quarter (Q4), boosting industry profits, according to experts.

Construction steel and HRC prices in the Vietnamese market saw a 32 per cent and 28 per cent decrease respectively in the first eight months of 2024, according to data from MB Securities (MBS).
These drops were due to weakened demand, largely driven by a sharp decline in steel consumption in China and its real estate crisis.
MBS anticipates the real estate sector crisis to continue until the close of 2024, with steel price potential hinging on supply dynamics as steel mills start cutting production, tightening supply in Q4 2024. In China, the government is restricting licences for coal-based steel mills to uphold environmental standards and limit new supply.
Meanwhile, steel producers in Hebei and Tianjin have trimmed production by 20 to 30 per cent as gross profit margins hit a notable low of negative 4 per cent, the lowest in five years.
Vietnamese Ha Tinh Steel’s domestic sales orders booming
Ha Tinh Steel announced a new rate increase of US$30/MT for domestic sales in early October. It was understood that Ha Tinh Steel's order volume has exceeded expectations, mainly because China's hot-rolled coil (HRC) has been subject to dumping investigations by many countries. Downstream manufacturers are concerned about export obstacles and purchase conservatively from local mills. In addition, market participants pointed out that when Ha Tinh Steel's new rate announcement, coupled with a rebound in the Chinese market, strong price trends were conducive to domestic sales orders. On the other hand, the export market will still face price competition from Chinese mills, and sales pressure will intensify.
Anticipated drop in Vietnam's coated steel exports in 2025
In 2025, Vietnam's steel export market is expected to face challenges due to US anti-dumping and subsidy investigations on imported corrosion-resistant steel. Despite this, domestic coated steel consumption is projected to grow steadily, with the fourth-quarter output forecasted at 1.3 million tons, up 26.9% year-on-year. Overall, the 2024 domestic output could reach 2.4 million tons (+16.5%), while exports may hit 3 million tons (+36.5%). However, in 2025, exports are anticipated to decline by 5% to 2.88 million tons, while domestic market growth may continue at 10%, reaching 2.65 million tons. Additionally, recent economic stimulus from China has positively impacted steel prices, with expectations for hot-rolled coil prices to stabilize in the fourth quarter.
Scrap imports grow in Aug m-o-m, y-o-y
Vietnam's scrap steel imports experienced strong growth in August 2024, rising 19% from about 340,000 tons in July to 404,000 tons. This marks a 37% increase compared to August 2023, when imports were about 296,000 tons. Between January and August 2024, the country imported a total of 2.9 million tons of scrap steel, a 17% increase from 2.5 million tons during the same period the previous year. Japan remained Vietnam's top supplier, exporting 211,000 tons, which accounted for more than half of Vietnam's total imports. Other key suppliers were Hong Kong (about 75,000 tons), Australia (about 56,000 tons), and the US (about 43,000 tons).
Hoa Phat’s revenue rises in Q1-Q3
Hoa Phat Group, a leading steel manufacturer in Vietnam, posted its revenue of VND 105 trillion in the first three quarters of this year, rising by 23% compared to the same period a year ago.
The group’s estimated revenue was VND 34 trillion in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Both domestic and overseas steel markets were affected by price drops, and sales slid by 7% from the previous quarter to over 2 million tons.
In the first three quarters of this year, Hoa Phat’s raw steel output totaled 6.4 million tons, a year-on-year hike of 34%. The sales, excluding steel pipes and galvanized steel, reached around 6 million tons, up by 32% year on year.
Production of steel pipes and galvanized steel in the given period hiked by 3% and 43% year on year, amounting to 503,000 tons and 344,000 tons, respectively.
Vietnam lifted AD duties on steel imports from China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia
Vietnam has officially lifted its anti-dumping (AD) duties on cold-rolled stainless steel imports from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Indonesia, effective October 26, 2024. This decision concludes a five- year imposition period that began in 2019. elRa eelRa
Vietnam first introduced these duties in 2014, targeting imports from the countries above. For Taiwanese manufacturers, the initial tariff was 13.79%, which significantly increased to 37.29% with the 2019 review-marking the highest AD rate among the four affected regions.
Industry participants believe that removing these tariffs could provide a short-term boost to Taiwan's exports to Vietnam. However, they also note that the benefits will extend similarly to producers in China, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The competitive landscape among these nations could reshape as all four regain unfettered access to the Vietnamese market.
Adding complexity to the situation is the growing production output of Vietnam's own stainless-steel producers, particularly Yongjin. This domestic increase might influence future export opportunities and market strategies for foreign producers, including those from Taiwan.
Source: Yieh.com