In early June 2024, Robusta coffee prices increased due to scarce supply, partly due to concerns about crop in Vietnam, while demand remained high. In addition, shipping rates and cargo prices increased. In addition, widespread port congestion in Asia has caused shipping rates on routes to the United States and Europe to skyrocket and a large amount of goods to be stuck at ports. This could cause a temporary disruption in coffee supply, pushing coffee prices on the world market to stay high.
However, according to a report by consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest was 29% complete as of June 4, up from 26% at the same time in 2023/24 and above the five-year average of 27%. Although coffee from Brazil's new crop has yet to appear on the market, Arabica coffee supplies from other sources around the world continue to increase. According to ICO data, global shipments increased by 11% from October 2023 to April 2024, compared to the same period last year.
Robusta and Arabica coffee prices are expected to decline in the coming period. Coffee harvest in Brazil is expected to end in July 2024. According to forecast of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil's coffee production this season could reach 69.9 million bags (60 kg/bag); Of which, Arabica coffee output is expected to increase by 7.35% and Robusta coffee output is estimated to increase by 1.4%. These figures are slightly higher than forecasts from market research firms. When new supplies from Brazil are released to the market, world coffee prices may be under pressure to adjust downward.
Preliminary statistics from General Department of Customs show that as of June 15, our country exported more than 862,400 tonnes of various types of coffee, earning about 3.04 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, the volume of coffee exports decreased by 7.8% but the value increased sharply by 38.8%.
Although the volume of coffee exports decreased, this industry still set a historical record when the turnover exceeded 3 billion USD in less than half a year. This figure is also equivalent to the coffee export turnover of the whole year 2021.
Among the 10 largest coffee export markets of Vietnam in the first 5 months of the year, while coffee exports to the markets of Germany, Italy, the United States and Russia decreased, exports to markets of Spain, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Netherlands and China increased.
In particular, coffee exports to the Spanish market increased by 102%; the Philippine market increased by 140.5% and the Dutch market increased by 107.4% compared to the same period last year.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development assessed that with our country's coffee output, this year, export turnover of this industry will reach over 5 billion USD - the highest level in history.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn