Export growth 16%
According to data from General Department of Customs, from the beginning of May to May 15, the country's goods exports reached 14.64 billion USD. Overall, from the beginning of the year to May 15, total export turnover reached 138.59 billion USD, an increase of 16% over the same period in 2023 (equivalent to an increase in turnover of 19.17 billion USD).
In opposite direction, from the beginning of May to May 15, goods import reached 17.26 billion USD. Accumulating from the beginning of the year to May 15, the country's total import turnover reached 132.23 billion USD, up 17.5% over the same period last year (equivalent to an increase in turnover of 19.7 billion USD).
Thus, as of mid-May, scale of the country's import-export turnover reached 270.82 billion USD, with a surplus of 6.36 billion USD. Notably, according to General Department of Customs, all 10 largest export markets have positive growth including: United States, EU, China, ASEAN, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong (China), India, Canada, Australia. Among them, the 5 largest markets with the most impressive increases are: United States, China, EU, ASEAN, Hong Kong (China).
Unlike last year's gloomy situation, this year's textile and garment exports have seen many clear improvements. According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 4 months of this year, textile and garment export turnover increased by 6.3% over the same period. The enterprise has enough export orders until the end of the third quarter and is negotiating more orders for the fourth quarter. With this momentum, many comments suggest that the yearly textile and garment export target of about 44 billion USD is completely feasible. Notably, according to Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, many retail corporations in member blocks of free trade agreements such as Canada, Australia, Europe... have come to Vietnam to look for supply chains with competitive prices.
Along with diversifying markets, diversifying customers and diversifying products, Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association also said that enterprises in the industry are making efforts to transform green, digital transformation and improve quality of goods. Because when production changes to meet requirements of importers, textiles and garments are still an advantageous product group for Vietnam to achieve set growth goals.
In field of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, pepper is one of agricultural products with hot price increases, with an increase of about 30% over the same period last year. According to preliminary statistics of Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), by the end of April 2024, Vietnam had exported 83,067 tonnes of pepper of all kinds, with a total export turnover of 352 million USD.
Talking to reporters from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Ms. Hoang Thi Lien - President of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association said that global pepper market size is valued at 5.43 billion USD, with an average growth rate of more than 20% in a period of 2024 - 2032. Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) estimates that Vietnam's pepper output in 2023 - 2024 season will increase by about 5% compared to 2022. 2024 pepper crop of Vietnam is expected to increase to 225,000 tonnes compared to the estimated 200,000 tonnes of last year's crop. According to VPSA's forecast, in the coming time, prices will continue to increase, which will help the pepper industry reach 1 billion USD export mark this year.
Goods exports in 2024 will achieve growth targets
Talking to reporters from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong - former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - commented that although the world economy is considered to have not yet recovered and there are still many fluctuations due to competition and geopolitical issues, however, 2024 is considered more positive for import and export work. Accordingly, import and export are forecast to recover slightly. The reason pointed out is that inflation in major economies in the world such as the US and EU has begun to decrease, although not much. Central banks of many countries have stopped raising interest rates and maybe from June or July, many major economies will reduce interest rates, at which time, the world economy will begin to gradually inch up.
Vietnam's economy is highly open, Vietnam's exports depend heavily on the world. Increased world demand will boost Vietnam's exports and imports will also increase to serve export activities.
Besides, throughout 2022 and 2023, due to difficult economic situation, low demand in many countries, high inflation, high interest rates, many buyers in countries temporarily suspend imports, they use inventory for sale. Up to now, the inventory has been exhausted, they have to import again, world demand has begun to increase a bit. Adding these factors together helps our current exports in some products increase relatively, especially consumer goods.
With the above analysis, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong believes that from now until the end of 2024, Vietnam's import and export activities will be favorable. “In the first 4 months of 2024, merchandise export turnover is estimated to reach 123.64 billion USD, up 15% over the same period last year. With this result, I believe that goods exports for the whole year 2024 will achieve the growth target of about 6% compared to 2023 that Ministry of Industry and Trade has set", Dr. Le Quoc Phuong assessed.
From another perspective, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan - Member of National Assembly's Economic Committee - assessed that in the first 4 months of 2024, export situation of goods is favorable but only in the immediate future. In long term, with political conflicts in the world; situation of trade protection, implementation of international treaties, free trade agreements (FTAs)... so exports in the coming time will face many difficulties. Besides, enterprises must meet green transformation requirements of the world economy. Among them, EU warned that it would apply carbon taxes on products that affect environment and emit greenhouse gases... Therefore, Mr. Tran Hoang Ngan recommended that the Government have policies to support for enterprises in green transformation.
In current context, import and export activities face many difficulties due to impact of complex and unpredictable developments in the world and region; High inflation reduces export orders. Conflicts broke out in many places... disrupting global supply chain, increasing production and transportation costs.
However, according to estimated data from Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 5 months of 2024, goods exports reached about 156.5 billion USD, an increase of 15% over the same period last year. Notably, exports to foreign markets FTA markets all have good recovery.
Specifically, in the first 4 months of 2024, Vietnam's goods exports to the ASEAN region increased by 10.5%; to Japan increased by 3.3%, Korea increased by 8.6%, EU increased by 15.1%, Australia increased by 22.6%. Vietnam in the past year upgraded its comprehensive strategic partnership with two major partners, China and the United States. In which trade is considered an important pillar. Exports to China in the first 4 months of the year reached 17 billion USD, up 12.8%; to the United States reached 34.7 billion USD, an increase of 21.2%.
To support enterprises in export activities, in the coming time, Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to proactively coordinate with ministries and branches to promote negotiations and sign new trade agreements with other partners, still having a lot of potential; Support enterprises to maximize opportunities in the agreements; Regularly exchange and grasp difficulties and obstacles in each export industry to promptly find solutions to solve and promote export activities.

L. Giang
Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn