AsemconnectVietnam - Food shortages are forecast to be more severe in 2023 and drive rice export prices of countries, including Vietnam, to record highs.

The world is short of 8.7 million tonnes of rice in 2023
According to a forecast by the macroeconomic research organization Fitch Solutions of Fitch Group, the global rice market is forecast to fall into the most severe shortage in two decades in 2023.
Fitch Solutions says a shortage of this magnitude in one of the world's most cultivated grains is expected to affect major rice importing countries. And on a global scale, the most obvious impact of the rice shortage is that rice prices have been and are still at their highest levels in a decade, even though prices will remain anchored around their current highs through 2024. The report of Fitch Solution also forecasts that in 2023, the world will be short of about 8.7 million tonnes of rice.
Meanwhile, in terms of global rice supply, according to the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in the 2022-2023 crop year reached 503.96 million tonnes, down by nearly 2%, equivalent to a decrease of nearly 11.4 million tonnes. In which, the production in major exporting countries decreased significantly, including the production of India decreased from 130.29 million tonnes to 124 million tonnes; that of Pakistan decreased from 9.1 million tonnes to 6.6 million tonnes compared to the 2021-2022 crop. This production is forecast to be at the lowest level in the last 4 years.
The price of Vietnamese rice is increasing at a record in the past 2 years
The fear of a global rice shortage has been having positive effects on Vietnam's rice exports. Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association and the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group said that while many export industries such as textiles and garments, seafood, leather and footwear and wood are in a serious decline, rice exports are still the bright spot of export activities in the first quarter of 2023.
Specifically, the country’s rice exports decreased by 19.3% in volume but increased by 30.2% in value over the same period in 2022. And with the world situation continuing to have high demand for food security as at this point of time, the rice prices may continue to remain high.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn