AsemconnectVietnam - Vietnam’s industrial and import-export sectors maintained strong growth momentum during the first nine months of 2026. Boosting domestic value-added content is a prerequisite for sustainable growth amidst external fluctuations.

According to the September of 2026 report by the Institute for Industry and Trade Strategy and Policy Research (Ministry of Industry and Trade), which analyzes the impact of global and domestic socio-economic conditions on Vietnam's industrial, energy, and trade development - industrial production continued to serve as the primary engine of growth.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the third quarter of 2026 was estimated to have risen by 14.8% year-on-year. Overall, the IIP grew by 12.3% during the nine-month period, marking a multi-year high. The growth was recorded across key sectors: manufacturing and processing (up by 12.9%), electricity production and distribution (up by 10.6%), and mining (up by 8.0%). Increases were observed in all 34 localities, indicating that the recovery momentum was widespread rather than concentrated in just a few industrial hubs.
Alongside the rise in production, the total volume of electricity generated and imported across the national grid reached 265.79 billion kWh in the nine-month period, an increase of 9.3%.
Business confidence remained steady. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.9 points in September, marking the 15th consecutive month of improving business conditions. While the pace of expansion slowed slightly due to pressures regarding export orders, the report characterizes this as a rational adjustment following a period of rapid growth.
Survey results also point to positive trends. In the third quarter, 34.2% of manufacturing enterprises reported better business performance compared to the previous quarter, while 45.7% described their situation as stable. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, 39.2% of enterprises anticipate improvement, with only 16.1% forecasting greater difficulties.
However, this growth momentum is accompanied by a significant demand for imported inputs. Capital goods account for 94.1% of total import value, comprising machinery and equipment (58.3%) and raw materials, fuels, and supplies (35.8%). The report suggests this reflects business expansion and the development of new production capacities. Conversely, given the currently low localization rate, increased production inevitably drives up the demand for imported inputs - a trend clearly evident in sectors such as electronics, machinery and equipment, textiles, footwear, plastics, and chemicals.
Meanwhile, overcapacity in China heightens the risk of steel, chemicals, and construction materials being diverted to the Vietnamese market, thereby pressuring traditional manufacturing sectors. Additionally, the European Union (EU) is preparing to implement financial obligations under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), imposing new requirements on steel, aluminum, and fertilizer enterprises. These factors underscore that increasing the localization rate is both a long-term objective and a means for enterprises to mitigate immediate risks.
Regarding solutions, the Institute proposes that major export industries clearly identify the raw materials and components for which they rely on specific markets. Based on this assessment, they should develop a list of products that can be manufactured domestically or sourced from alternative suppliers. Industrial support policies should prioritize enterprises capable of producing the components, materials, and semi-finished goods that exporters currently import in large volumes. Regarding businesses, the report recommends adopting energy-saving technologies to mitigate the impact of oil prices. Steel and mechanical engineering enterprises need to refine their raw material traceability systems. Industries affected by CBAM must establish internal systems for the measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of emissions.
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn