High economic growth in Q4 expected to push up whole year’s performance: ExpertsWednesday, November 29,2023
AsemconnectVietnam - Expecting a growth rate of 7% in the fourth quarter, Vietnam has high possibility to achieve about 5% growth for the whole year, held experts, assessing that although the figure is under the target of 6.5%, it is still a positive result.
The Vietnamese economy showed good recovery in the first three quarters of this year, reflected through many important indicators. A higher growth in the last quarter is expected to make a push to the growth in 2024 and following years.
According to Dinh Quang Hinh from VNDIRECT, Vietnam’s GDP expansion is predicted to rise 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2023, contributing to increasing the whole year’s growth of 5.0%.
The expert held that the major factors motivating the growth in the period include an expanded fiscal policy, lower lending interest rates, and recovering manufacturing industry. Vietnam posted only 5.9% growth in the same time last year, Hinh added.
Meanwhile, Nguyen Phuong Lam from Viet Dragon Securities said that industrial production has been improved in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarters on the low foundation seen in the same period last year when the processing-manufacturing sector recorded a growth of only 3.0%, much lower than the 5.6% recorded in the third quarter of 2023.
At the same time, in the first 10 months of this year, development investment was estimated at 401.9 trillion VND (16.58 billion USD), she noted.
Lam expected that disbursement of public investment capital will continue to accelerate in the last two months of 2023, thereby supporting the overall growth momentum of the economy. However, the service sector growth is expected to continue to decline in the last quarter of the year, she said, adding that industrial production has yet to fully recovered.
Huynh Hoang Phuong, an economist from FIDT JSC, said that the health of the production sector has shown mixed signs of good and bad in recent times. However, the general trend of the manufacturing industry is to gradually improve thanks to the recovery of the export of key products.
Looking further to the next 6 - 9 months, Phuong held that medium- and long-term interest rates for general production will stay low, while measures to reduce production costs such as reduction of taxes, fees and land rent, and solutions to stimulate consumption by the Government including cutting VAT by 2% in 2024 will be good conditions for the manufacturing sector to expand business and continue to recover.
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