AsemconnectVietnam - On Wednesday, Robusta coffee prices in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing area rose by 1000 VND to VND94,000 – VND94,700 per kg compared to Yesterday, according to Kinhtedothi.

Gia Nghia of Dak Nong provided the maximum price of VND94,700 /kg, while traders in Lam Dong province offered the lowest price of VND94,000/kg. Robusta coffee rose to VND94,000 per kg in Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha; to VND 94,500 per kg - VND94,600 per kg in Dak Lak; to VND 94,600 – VND94,700 in Dak Nong; to VND94,500 per kg in Kon Tum, and to VND94,500 – VND 94,600 per kg in Gia Lai.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) said that Vietnam exported 438,000 tonnes of coffee in the first two months of this year for 1.38 billion USD, a rise of 27.9% in volume and 85% in value over the same period last year. The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa) estimated that the coffee output in the 2024-2024 crop drops about 10% compared to the previous crop due to shrunken farming area, while inventories from the previous crop is at the lowest in many years and equivalent to one-third of that in the previous crop. This has led to a supply shortage, it said.
The MARD said that ICE-monitored Robusta coffee inventories as of the end of February continued to decline to a record low of 19,600 tonnes (326,667 sacks of 60 kilos), the lowest since 2014.
This year's El Nino weather event is bullish for coffee prices. An El Nino pattern typically brings heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting coffee crop production. The El Nino event may bring drought to Vietnam's coffee areas late this year and in early 2024, according to an official from Vietnam's Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change.
The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), in its biannual report released on December 21, projected that world coffee production in 2023/24 will increase +4.2% y/y to 171.4 million bags, with a +10.7% increase in arabica production to 97.3 million bags, and a -3.3% decline in robusta production to 74.1 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2023/24 ending stocks will fall by -4.0% to 26.5 million bags from 27.6 million bags in 2022-23. The USDA's FAS projects that Brazil's 2023/24 arabica production would climb +12.8% y/y to 44.9 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage. The USDA's FAS also forecasts that 2023/24 coffee production in Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, will climb +7.5% y/y to 11.5 mln bags.
Following are domestic Robusta coffee prices on March 20, in Vietnam's Central Highlands:

T.Huong
Source: Vitic/Kinhtedothi