Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) has just released forecasts on shrimp exports and prospects from Vietnam's major shrimp import markets in 2024.
Accordingly, VASEP believes that recovery momentum for shrimp exports will still face many difficulties in 2024, which requires enterprises in the Vietnamese shrimp industry to make more efforts to continue overcoming difficulties on the way of recover.
It is forecasted that Vietnam's shrimp exports will recover and increase slightly by 10-15% this year. Demand is forecast to recover from the late 6 months of this year, when inflationary pressures cool down and inventories at importers decrease. This is an opportunity for shrimp prices to increase again.
In the US market, after a continuous decrease in the first months of the year, from July to the end of 2023, shrimp exports to the US have recorded double-digit growth. As a result, in 2023, shrimp exports to the US reached 682 million USD, down by 15% compared to 2022.
VASEP forecasts that Vietnamese shrimp exports to this market will increase slightly in 2024 when food demand improves, inflation cools down and retail sales in the US recover. This forecast is made in the context that inflation in the US has decreased from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% in November 2023. The US Federal Reserve (FED) also issued messages to stop raising interest rates and consider reducing interest rates in 2024.
However, the US remains wary of geopolitical risks, including conflict in Ukraine, which could potentially disrupt grain markets and push inflation back up.
Notably, American Shrimp Processing Association (ASPA) has just submitted a request to investigate anti-subsidy tax on imported shrimp, including Vietnam, which will affect Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US in the first half of 2024. In addition, Red Sea tensions in early 2024 caused shipping rates to the US to increase.
Regarding Japanese market, according to VASEP, after many months of decline, shrimp exports to the Japanese market tend to gradually recover when in the last month of 2023, shrimp exports to this market increased by 6% compared to the same period last year. Japan is assessed to have a lot of potential and will recover sooner than other large markets such as the US and EU in 2024.
In the EU market, in 2023, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, consumers spending frugally, rising prices, rising gasoline and devaluing the EUR are reasons for slow demand in this market. People choose cheap food and smaller sized shrimp, importers limit purchases and try to sell out to release inventory and limit losses. In 2023, Vietnamese shrimp exports to the EU reached 421 million USD, down by 39% compared to 2022.
However, VASEP said that in this market, Vietnamese shrimp still retains its advantage in the high-end segment. However, competitiveness of Ecuadorian shrimp is also gradually strengthening. With current economic and political instability, EU cannot recover for most of 2024. However, it is expected that demand will remain stable and not decrease further.
With the Chinese market, in 2023, Vietnamese shrimp exports to China and Hong Kong reached 607 million USD, down by 8% compared to 2022. China's demand for shrimp imports still increases strongly, but because there are too many sources. Supply "rushes" with low prices, making it difficult for Vietnamese shrimp to compete on price.
In the first months of 2024, Vietnamese shrimp exports to this market may recover slightly. Vietnam has an advantage of close location and reduced logistics costs compared to competitors. Meanwhile, the Red Sea tension causes shipping costs to increase, possibly causing Ecuador to reduce exports to China. This could be an opportunity for Vietnamese shrimp in the Chinese market. It is predicted that shrimp export turnover in 2024 could reach 4 billion USD.\

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn