AsemconnectVietnam - With bright signs seen in the last months of 2023, many experts predicted that the domestic steel sector can recover in 2024.

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), steel sales in November and December 2023 reached the highest levels in 20 months with growth between 20-40% for different products. With bright signs seen in the last months of 2023, many experts predicted that the domestic steel sector can recover in 2024.
This year, along with a bright outlook of the domestic economy plus the government’s policies to promote public investment, steel production and consumption may reach 29 million tonnes and 21.67 million tonnes, marking rises of 6.7% and 7.4% year on year, respectively, it said.
Meanwhile, Viet Dragon Securities forecast that construction steel sales of Vietnam’s leading producer – Hoa Phat Group, will surge 29% to 4.8 million tonnes in 2024 due to higher demand for construction materials.
US issues conclusion on tax evasion investigation of Vietnamese steel pipe products
The United States’ Department of Commerce (DOC) has issued a conclusion of its investigation into trade remedy tax evasion on a number of steel pipe products imported from Vietnam, which was launched on August 4, 2022 targeting steel pipes codes HS 7306.61 and 7306.30, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
The investigation was prompted by accusations that Vietnamese steel makers imported hot rolled steel (HRS), the main raw material used to produce steel pipes, from mainland China, Taiwan (China), the Republic of Korea, and India, and then processed it into steel pipes for export to the US. Firms making the accusation believe that Vietnamese processors had done so in order to evade the respective trade remedy tax that the US is levying on the aforementioned countries.
Vietnam's hot-rolled import price keeps rising
Last week, Hoa Phat Group announced to raise its domestic price of hot-rolled products whose delivery time will be in March-April 2024. After that, China traders followed the increase and elevated their hot-rolled quotations as well, and the action was also copied by main Asian steel mills in India, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.
According to local traders, Vietnamese buyers now have to deal with a higher purchase price than before, a fact that certainly causes pressure.
Hoa Phat Steel’s new base price continues to rise
Hoa Phat Steel announced to increase its new base rate continuously. The market believes that the price-up of Hoa Phat Steel has brought incentives to the current market, and it is also expected that major Asian steel mills will follow suit and raise the offer.
Taiwanese steel mills stated that the Vietnamese market is affected by the opening-up policy and fierce competition. Therefore, the price strategies of Hoa Phat Steel and Ha Tinh Steel have to follow mainstream trends. In addition, Europe and the US have adopted anti-circumvention measures against carbon steel originating from China, which has weakened the impact of China’s import prices on the Vietnamese market.
On the other hand, as the US dollar weakens and iron ore prices continue to rise, subsequent rates of major Asian mills will certainly reflect the upward trend.
Regarding future market performance, local distributors believe that as long as the prices of Chinese mills remain stable, they will benefit the market. European and American steel mills are also planning a new wave of price-up before the New Year holidays, and the production costs of raw materials have increased, which further support the Asian market.
Vietnam launches second AD review on China’s H-shaped steel products
On December 5, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) of Vietnam issued Decision No. 3133/QD-BCT of the second review of the anti-dumping (AD) measures on H-shaped steel products originating in China, following the application filed by interested parties. The period of the review is from October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023.
The products involved in this case are classified under HS codes 7216.33.11, 7216.33.19, 7216.33.90, 7228.70.10, and 7228.70.90.
The final determination of the first sunset review was made in August 2022, continuing to impose an AD duty with a rate ranging from 22.09% to 33.51%, valid from September 6, 2022, for a period of five years.
Vietnam steel market review & outlook
Vietnam's steel industry experienced a difficult year in 2023. The challenges faced by Vietnam's steel market this year include rising input costs, weak domestic demand, price competition for imported resources, and pressure from widening differences in loan interest rates and exchange rates.
These factors have caused steel mills to reduce production and steel companies to suffer losses. Overall, in addition to stimulating investment demand, promoting public investment and real estate projects is also necessary. In the short term, Vietnam's economy still has great development potential. Demand for automotive, shipbuilding, manufacturing, and electrical equipment is growing. Vietnam's crude steel production may increase to 21.5 million tons in 2023 and 51 million tons in 2050.
T.Huong
Source: Vitic/ Yieh