AsemconnectVietnam - Standard Chartered Bank forecast that Vietnam's economy will recover in the second half of 2023 with GDP growth predicted to reach 7% year-on-year, from 3.7% in the first half of the year.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's economic growth will recover in the second half of 2023 thanks to the recovery of exports and loosening domestic policies.
Vietnam’s economy started the second half of this year with positive signals which are expected to pave the way for a better recovery in the coming time.
According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), in July, industrial production which can reflect many angles of the economy was better than the previous month.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in July 2023 not only increased by 3.9% compared to the previous month but also increased by 3.7% compared to the same period last year. In particular, the IIP in July 2023 increased again in localities including Bac Ninh (up 23.8%), Thai Nguyen (9%), Vinh Phuc (5.8%), Binh Duong (2.3%), Ho Chi Minh City (1.9%), and Long An (0.8%)
In the first seven months, the IIP of 49 provinces and centrally-run cities increased and that of 14 others across the country decreased.
Increased industrial production probably implied positive signals for domestic consumption and exports. Data from the GSO showed that Vietnam’s export turnover in July 2023 reached 29.68 billion USD, up 0.8% compared to June. Meanwhile, foreign investment attraction for the first time this year increased by 4.5% from the same period last year, reaching nearly 16.24 billion USD.
The figures are quite consistent with the data on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of Vietnam's manufacturing industry that S&P Global has just released.
Accordingly, Vietnam's PMI rose to 48.7 points in July from 46.2 points in June. Although the number was still below 50 points, which showed production declined for the 5th consecutive month, this decline was quite mild and lowest in this period.
Despite the modest increase in industrial production and exports, Vietnam’s tourism and services saw a positive recovery as the country welcomed more than 1 million international visitors in July, 6.5% higher than the previous month and 2.9 times higher than the same period last year.
Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that, to overcome economic difficulties, it is necessary to implement drastic and effective solutions to speed up the disbursement of public investment, stimulate consumption and investment demand, and boost exports as they are important growth drivers of the economy.
Vietnam’s economic growth target kept unchanged for 2023 PM
The Government will not change the growth target of 6.5 per cent for 2023 and strive to reach an economic expansion of about 9 per cent in the rest of the year, stated Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính.
PM Chính said that amid various challenges both inside the country and from the outside, along with the Government's efforts, all-level authorities, sectors, the whole political system, all people and businesses have joined hands for better performance in all fields.
As a result, the macro-economic situation has been kept stable, while inflation has been reined in, development has been promoted, and people's living conditions have been improved.
International organisations have given positive forecasts on the Vietnamese economic outlook even amid the difficult world situation, he said, noting that Việt Nam also leaped four places in the 2023 Global Peace Index.
However, he also pointed to a number of problems and risks for the economy in the rest of the year.
After analysing reasons behind the problems and drawing lessons, the Government leader underlined the need to consistently implement the targets set in the resolution of the 13th National Party Congress as well as resolutions and conclusions of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo, the National Assembly and the Government.
It is necessary to prioritise the removal of difficulties facing business and production activities, promoting growth in association with ensuring macro-economic stability and controlling inflation, enhancing people's living conditions, and managing public debts, government debts and budget over-expense, he stressed.
He underlined the need to ensure harmony and balance between interest rates and exchange rates, between growth and inflation, supply and demand, and between monetary policy and fiscal policy, while keeping a close eye on the situation inside and outside the country for timely policy response.
He asked relevant agencies to review policies and give suitable solutions to promote the three growth motivations of consumption, investment and export.
Along with speeding up the implementation of resolutions on the development of regions and strengthening the operations of the regional coordination council as well as 26 Government working groups, it is crucial to respond to requests of localities through regular meeting mechanisms, he requested.
The PM asked for efforts to deal with problems in the real estate and Government bond markets, along with drastic measures to speed up public investment capital as well as the implementation of the socio-economic recovery and development programme and the three national target programmes.
He ordered stronger administrative reform and solutions to fight corruption, controlling natural disasters and ensuring political security, defence and social order and safety.
Alongside, it is necessary to expand external relations activities in both bilateral and multilateral aspects, he said.
He assigned specific tasks to particular ministries, sectors and localities in the time to come, reminding them to make good preparations for the upcoming new school year.
Participants noted that in July, the socio-economic situation was improved compared to the previous month, contributing to the country’s performance in the first seven months.
So far, the macro-economic situation has remained stable, while inflation has been controlled. In the first seven months, the average consumer price index (CPI) increased 3.12 per cent, while all the major economic balances were ensured.
State budget collection exceeded VNĐ1 quadrillion (US$42.13 billion), equivalent to 62.7 per cent of the estimate. Meanwhile, the country’s exports fetched $195.4 billion, with a trade surplus of $16.5 billion.
In July, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 3.9 per cent month on month and 3.7 per cent year on year. Total revenue from retail of goods and services increased 7.1 per cent year on year in July and 10.4 per cent in seven months.
At the same time, the country welcomed more than one million foreign visitors in July and 6.6 million in the January-July period, 6.9 times higher than that in the same period last year.
In seven months, 267.63 trillion VND of public investment capital was disbursed, completing 37.85 per cent of the yearly target, 3.38 per cent increase year on year.
CK
Source: VITIC/Vietnamplus.vn/Ven.vn