AsemconnectVietnam - On Friday, Robusta coffee prices in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing area decreased by 500 VND to VND60.000 - 60.500 per kg compared to Yesterday due to lack of domestic supply, according to Kinhtedothi.com.

Cư M'gar of Dak Lak provided the maximum price of VND60.500/kg, while traders in Lam Dong province offered the lowest price of VND60.000/kg. Robusta coffee decreased to VND60.000 per kg in Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha; to VND60.400– VND60.500 per kg in Dak Lak; to VND60.400 – VND60.500 per kg in Dak Nong; to VND60.400 per kg in Kon Tum, and to VND60.300 - VND60.400 per kg in Gia Lai.
Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2022-2023 crop is estimated to decrease by 10-15% compared to the previous crop. This year's forecast is only about 1.5 million tonnes due to unfavorable weather and the wave of crop shifting.
At this time, most of the coffee production in households is no longer available, businesses buy enough to sell because of a lack of capital, few businesses still store goods for sale.
Statistics from the Vietnam General Department of Customs showed that Vietnam’s coffee export totalled more than 634,000 tonnes from the beginning of this year to April 15, lower than the result of 663,816 tonnes of the same period last year. According to the Department of Industry and Trade of Dak Lak province and coffee exporters, the market has been strongly influenced by the law of supply - demand.
The weather pattern El Nino, expected to develop globally in the second half of the year, poses a larger risk for the production of the robusta coffee variety than for milder arabica coffee, analysts and weather experts said.
The weather phenomenon, which disrupts rainfall and temperature patterns, could further tighten supplies and raise prices of robusta, which has a higher caffeine content than arabica and is largely used to make instant coffee.
The world's two largest robusta-producing countries, Vietnam and Brazil, could suffer yield losses if a strong El Nino develops, analysts and weather experts said.
Robusta prices have surged this week to a 15-year peak due to tight supply and on worries about future production due to El Nino.
Coffee analyst Fernando Maximiliano, from broker StoneX, said there was a nearly 40% drop in robusta coffee production in Brazil the last time a strong El Nino developed and caused a drought in Brazil's Espirito Santo state between 2015 and 2016.
Maximiliano said that area is better prepared nowadays after investments in reservoirs and irrigation systems, but the crop's potential will all depend on the intensity of expected dry weather caused by El Nino.
Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast predicts a 70% to 80% chance of El Nino developing mid-2023, and extending into 2024. The institution expects record temperatures in the country during that period.
For arabica coffee - the milder variety preferred by high-end cafes - risks seem smaller. Central and South American producers that have suffered from excess rains during the last three years of La Nina are seen having more normal weather.
Following are domestic Robusta coffee prices on May 25, in Vietnam's Central Highlands: