Exports increase in volume but decrease in value due to falling rice prices
According to a report by Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, volume of rice exports in July 2026 is estimated at 505,000 tonnes, worth 252.8 million USD. In the first 7 months of the year, Vietnam exported approximately 5.5 million tonnes of rice, earning 2.64 billion USD, an increase of 0.5% in volume but a decrease of 6.7% in value compared to the same period in 2025. The main reason is decrease in the average export price. According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, average export price of rice in the first seven months of the year reached only about US$476.6/tonne, a decrease of 7.1% compared to the same period last year.
The Philippines continues to be Vietnam's largest rice consumer market, accounting for 44.7% of total export turnover. China ranks second with 19.1%, followed by Ghana with 9.6%. Notably, rice export to China doubled compared to the same period last year, while the Philippines market maintained a growth rate of 2.3%. Conversely, export to Ghana decreased by 15.2%. Among the top 15 largest markets, Iraq recorded the highest growth rate with a 110.8-fold increase in turnover, while Ivory Coast experienced the sharpest decline, at 55.7%.
According to data from Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), domestic rice supply in 2026 will remain stable with an estimated production of 43-44 million tonnes, ensuring sufficient supply for consumption, reserves and exports. Vietnam is expected to export approximately 7-7.5 million tonnes of rice for the whole year. However, after exporting about 5.5 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, only about 1.5-2 million tonnes remain for export in the remaining months of the year. This indicates limited supply capacity amidst a trend of rising global rice prices.
On international market, export price of Indian rice – the world's largest rice exporter – has risen to its highest level in nearly 10 months due to shrinking supply and recovering international demand. 5% broken rice is being offered at $358-$364 per tonne, higher than last week. Meanwhile, Vietnamese rice prices are generally stable. 5% broken rice is being offered at $455-$459 per tonne, showing an advantage in quality but also creating competitive pressure as global demand has not yet recovered strongly. According to traders, import demand remains weak after the Philippines, Vietnam's largest rice consumer market, tightened import management measures. However, export businesses are maintaining selling prices due to pressure on profit margins.
Rice prices remain high, businesses propose solutions to overcome difficulties.
On domestic market, rice trading in Mekong Delta remained relatively quiet at the beginning of the week. According to Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center (VITIC), farmers continue to maintain prices while traders purchase cautiously based on actual demand, resulting in no significant improvement in liquidity. In fresh rice segment, prices remain volatile across different localities. Dai Thom 8 rice is purchased at 6,000 - 7,100 VND/kg; OM 18 at 6,200 - 7,100 VND/kg; OM 5451 at 5,400 - 6,900 VND/kg; and IR 50404 at approximately 5,400 - 6,500 VND/kg. Meanwhile, raw rice segment for export continues to remain at high prices due to limited supply. IR504 rice fluctuates at 9,700 - 9,800 VND/kg; and CL555 at 9,800 - 9,900 VND/kg. OM5451 rice is priced at approximately 9,300 - 9,400 VND/kg; Dai Thom 8 rice is at 9,200 - 9,400 VND/kg. High-quality rice varieties continue to lead the market.
On export market, selling price of Vietnamese rice remains basically stable. Jasmine rice is offered at 546 - 550 USD/tonne; 5% broken rice at 455 - 459 USD/tonne; and 100% broken rice at 359 - 363 USD/tonne. Vietnamese rice prices are currently comparable to Thai rice in some segments but are still higher than Indian rice, reflecting a quality advantage while also creating competitive pressure in general rice segment.
According to businesses, import demand remains quite sluggish after the Philippines – Vietnam's largest rice market – strengthened import management measures. However, businesses have not yet adjusted selling prices downwards due to pressure on profit margins. At Conference on Promoting Exports of Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Products in the last six months of 2026, Mr. Do Hai Nam, Chairman of Vietnam Food Association (VFA), stated that for rice industry to contribute more to export growth targets, it is necessary to simultaneously address issues related to markets, branding and policy mechanisms.
Accordingly, the Association recommended that Ministry of Agriculture and Environment proactively work with the Philippines to remove barriers arising in import activities, while supporting businesses in expanding into African markets and other potential markets to reduce dependence on some traditional markets. In addition, the Association proposed early implementation of a project to build a national rice brand based on high-quality rice varieties such as ST25, Jasmine, etc., thereby enhancing value of Vietnamese rice instead of primarily competing on price.
Regarding domestic production, Vietnam Food Association (VFA) recommends continuing to flexibly manage market during the Summer-Autumn and Autumn-Winter harvest periods to maintain stable rice prices and ensure a harmonious balance of interests between farmers and businesses. Simultaneously, it is necessary to strengthen development of raw material areas, promote production-consumption linkages, improve capacity of cooperatives and provide early information on crop varieties, acreage, and planting schedules so that businesses can proactively plan procurement and trade promotion.
In addition, the Association also requests that ministries and agencies promptly address obstacles related to credit and payment mechanisms when purchasing rice directly from farmers and expedite value-added tax refunds for exporting businesses. According to VFA, the fact that many businesses have not yet received tax refunds from the previous year is significantly affecting cash flow, procurement capacity and competitiveness of rice industry in context of a still volatile global market.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn